2019-2020 China Natural Rubber Market Annual Report
Highlights
In 2019, NR futures prices on the SHFE kept low and fluctuated in the range of RMB 10,000-13,000/mt, mostly due to the unbalanced supply-demand fundamentals. Major rubber producing countries reduced the output, limited the export, tried to boost the domestic demand and encouraged domestic and foreign countries to set up factories in a bid to raise the rubber price. The excess capacity forced the industrial integration in the downstream industry. The vehicle production and sales dropped after the increase rate turned negative last year. The Vehicle Inventory Alert Index had exceeded the warning line for 19 months in a row, which indicated the worrying situation in the downstream and end markets. Meanwhile, the inventory of NR futures warehouse receipts and China’s NR inventory kept high. The NR destocking had become a major task for the rubber industry in 2019. By the end of August 2019, the average NR futures price on the SHFE was RMB 11,750/mt, down 3.02% from the same period last year.
2019 was a turning point in the NR futures market. TSR20 futures was finally launched on August 12 after the 10-year preparation. In 2018, totally 13.9 million tons of natural rubber was consumed worldwide. The consumption volume of TSR20 rubber was 8.3 million tons, which contributed to 60% of the total NR consumption. The successful launch of TSR20 futures on the INE (Shanghai International Energy Change) will seriously influence the whole NR market. How will it affect the future supply-demand fundamentals in the NR industry? Will it help to take back the market share occupied by the mixed rubber? How will the price spread change? Will the arbitrage opportunity still exist? Will the downstream tire enterprises be interested in the hedging? What risks can the hedging practice help to avoid? How will the price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber change? SCI will answer those questions in its 2019-2020 SCI Natural Rubber Market Annual Report. It will help you sort out the industrial changes and judge the industrial development directions.
SCI Natural Rubber Market Annual Report, based on the detailed analysis of natural rubber industry over the past few years, has added the analysis of TSR20 market. It’s more comprehensive, detailed and reliable. Besides, it will also interpret some significant industry news. It combines SCI’s rich research results about the natural rubber markets and the first-hand data, extends from natural rubber to the downstream industries and the consumption side. It reviews the historical and industrial news, analyzes the industrial changes and trends over the past five years and in the next five years in a bid to help clients judge the market movements.
Report Value:
1. How will China’s supply and production respond to the definite policies?
2. How will the launch of TSR20 futures influence market?
3. How will the global natural rubber supply pattern change?
4. The downstream consumption structure variation and its influencing factors.
5. Analyzing the co-movement between futures and spot prices after the launch of TSR20 futures.
6. Forecasting the natural rubber industry development by using scientific analysis and research methods from various perspectives, such as supply and demand, macro, policy and alternative products.
Contents
Part 1 NR Market Overview
Part 2 2015-2019 NR Market Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
Part 3 NR Market Supply Pattern and Variation Analysis
3.1 Global NR Market Supply Pattern Analysis
3.1.1 NR Planting Area Changes in Major Producing Countries
3.1.2 Global and Major Producing Countries NR Output Variation
3.1.3 Global 20# Output Variation
3.2 China NR Market Supply Pattern Analysis
3.2.1 China NR Planting Area Variation and Analysis
3.2.2 China NR and 20# Output Variation Analysis
3.2.3 China NR Inventory and Warehouse Logistics Analysis
3.2.4 China NR Inventory at the SHFE Variation Analysis
3.3 China NR Import Market Analysis
3.3.1 China NR Import Volume Variation Analysis
3.3.2 China NR Import Trend Analysis
3.4 2020 NR Supply Forecast
3.4.1 2020 Major Producing Countries' NR Planting Area Growth Forecast
3.4.2 2019 Global and Major Producing Countries' NR Output Growth Forecast
3.4.3 2020 China Import Volume Forecast
Part 4 NR Market Demand Pattern and Variation Analysis
4.1 China NR Consumption Variation and Reason Analysis
4.2 China NR Consumption Structure Analysis
4.2.1 2019 China NR Consumption Analysis by Industry
4.2.2 2015-2019 Industrial Consumption Structure Proportion Variation and Reason Analysis
4.2.3 China Tire and Other Rubber Industries' Capacity Expansion Statistics
4.2.4 China Automobile and Transportation Logistics Industries Analysis
4.3 China NR Consumption Analysis by Region
4.3.1 2019 China NR Consumption Analysis by Region
4.3.2 China NR Customer Size Analysis
4.3.3 2015-2019 Regional Consumption Structure Proportion Variation and Reason Analysis
4.4 2020 NR Consumption Volume Forecast
4.4.1 Application Peak and Slack Seasons Analysis
4.4.2 Key Factors Analysis for Downstream Customers Procurement
4.4.3 Market Operators Risks and Barriers Analysis
Part 5 NR Price Trend Analysis
5.1 2019 NR Market Review
5.2 2019 NR Price Trend Analysis
5.2.1 China NR Market Price Trend Analysis
5.2.2 Global Market Price Trend Analysis and China Market Co-Movement Analysis
5.2.3 NR Futures and Spot Price Spread Analysis
5.2.4 Related Products Price Co-Movement Analysis
Part 6 2020 NR Market Trend Forecast
6.1 2020 NR Market Price Trend Forecast
6.2 2020 NR Market Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
6.2.1 NR Supply Pattern Forecast
6.2.2 NR Demand Pattern Forecast
6.3 Industrial Competition Analysis
6.3.1 NR Price Influencing Factors Analysis Based on Porter Five Force Model
6.3.2 Macro and Industrial Policy Analysis Based on PEST Model
6.3.3 NR Industry Value Chain Analysis
6.3.4 Related Products Price Co-Movement Forecast
6.4 Future Price Drivers
Appendixes
Appendix 1 Highlights in NR Industry
Appendix 2 Milestones in the NR Industry
Appendix 3 Methodologies and Related Definitions
3.1 Statistical and Computing Methodologies
3.2 Forecast Model Introduction
3.3 Definition and Abbreviation
Appendix 4 List of Major Suppliers
Appendix 5 Charts and Tables
Appendix 6 Related Product Annual Report
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