Introduction: Indonesia’s natural rubber output took up 23% or so of the global total in 2021. Indonesia’s customs showed that Indonesia’s natural rubber export volume in July 2022 dropped by 3% Y-O-Y, mainly as its standard rubber export volume dwindled. In August, Indonesia’s natural rubber export volume is predicted to show a slight M-O-M decrease from July and is possible to be at a relatively low level compared with that in the same period of the past few years.

Jul 1.75% M-O-M decline in July Indonesia’s natural rubber exports

Indonesia’s customs showed that Indonesia’s natural rubber export volume in July 2022 was 194.3kt, down 2.96% Y-O-Y. Indonesia’s natural rubber output decreased due to the aging rubber trees and diversion of labor as a result of better palm benefits. Moreover, the natural rubber processing benefit underperformed, so some orders flow into Thailand. Therefore, the export volume diminished.

July Indonesia’s standard rubber export volume took up 96% of the total and dropped by 2.96% Y-O-Y. 

In July 2022, Indonesia exported 192kt of standard rubber, making up about 96% of Indonesia’s natural rubber export. Indonesia exported 4kt of RSS, taking up 2% of Indonesia’s natural rubber export. It exported 1.7kt of compound rubber, taking up 1% of Indonesia’s natural rubber export.  

Standard rubber export analysis – 7%-8% Y-O-Y decrease in exports to the U.S. and Europe

Indonesia mainly exported standard rubber to the U.S., Japan, Europe, China, South Korea and India. Taking HS code 40012220 as an example, in July, its export volume to the above countries and regions took up 85% of the total. Specifically, the export volume to the U.S. was 51kt, down about 7% Y-O-Y. That to India was 8.9kt, down 43% Y-O-Y. That to South Korea was 6.7kt, down 49% Y-O-Y. That to the E.U. was 27kt, down 8% Y-O-Y. That to Japan was 42.5kt, up 18% Y-O-Y. That to China was 11kt, up 19%.

August Indonesia’s natural rubber export forecast

In August, Indonesia’s natural rubber export volume is predicted to decline from July. As international demand for natural rubber decreases, natural rubber prices rapidly go down, and this is likely to weigh on exports. Considering the decrease in Indonesia’s natural rubber output, it is predicted that Indonesia’s natural rubber export volume will be at a relatively low level compared with that in the same period of the past few years.