Last week
(Apr 19-25), the international crude oil prices mainly hovered at low levels,
with NYMEX WTI crude price fluctuating at $82-84/bbl. Early last week, the
Middle Eastern frictions eased, and the crude oil prices gave back the risk
premiums. The US crude stocks were at average levels, while the US gasoline and
distillate stocks dropped and rose W-O-W respectively, so the stocks data in
the US posted a mixed influence on the crude oil market. Additionally, the USD
index seesawed marginally at high levels, and the influence on the crude oil
market was also soft. Therefore, the crude oil prices only posted minor
adjustments last week.
In China,
the overall gasoline demand was average, while the gasoline retail volume at
petrol stations dropped somewhat. For diesel, its consumption shrank, and participants
mainly purchased as per their rigid demand, with scarce dealings of big orders.
Impeded by the bearish crude oil market and lukewarm domestic consumption, both
the gasoline and diesel prices posted a downward trend in the week. Specifically,
the gasoline and diesel average prices fell by RMB 92/mt and RMB 90/mt
respectively.
This week,
it is predicted that the international crude oil prices may fluctuate within a
narrow range, and the WTI crude oil prices may average $82/bbl with the range
of $81-83/bbl. Market participants pay more attention to supply and demand
fundamentals. The crude oil production cut at OPEC may be largely in line with
the market expectation. As for the crude oil demand, the U.S. may gradually
enter the demand peak season in summer, so the crude oil stock may go down.
However, the overall crude oil demand may remain sluggish in the short term,
giving thin support to the international crude oil prices.
In China,
the overall market sentiment is expected to remain relatively cautious and
bearish, and participants may focus on stimulating sales. The diesel demand
lacks strong bullish drivers, and state-owned companies are likely to cut their
offers to promote sales and complete the monthly sales task, so the diesel
prices are projected to stay in a downtrend. In the meantime, the gasoline market
is anticipated to be buoyed by the pre-May Day holiday replenishment. On the whole,
SCI reckons that this week, the gasoline prices may fluctuate by RMB 50-100/mt,
while the diesel prices may dip by RMB 50-100/mt.