China
Natural Rubber Mainstream Grade Market Price (unit: RMB/mt)
|
Date
|
Shanghai SCRWF
|
Shanghai SVR 3L mixed
|
Shandong RSS 3
|
Yunnan SCR 10
|
Sep 6, 2024
|
14,700-14,850
|
15,050-15,050
|
21,750-21,750
|
13,900-14,100
|
Sep 9, 2024
|
15,000-15,350
|
15,250-15,250
|
22,350-22,550
|
14,100-14,200
|
Sep 10, 2024
|
15,400-15,500
|
15,450-15,550
|
22,350-23,000
|
14,200-14,400
|
Sep 11, 2024
|
15,400-15,650
|
15,550-15,600
|
22,350-23,050
|
14,250-14,500
|
Sep 12, 2024
|
15,300-15,550
|
15,450-15,500
|
22,250-22,950
|
14,250-14,500
|
Avg. last week
|
14,930.00
|
15,105.00
|
21,100.00
|
14,020.00
|
Avg. this week
|
15,270.00
|
15,370.00
|
22,435.00
|
14,240.00
|
Change rate
|
+2.28%
|
+1.75%
|
+6.33%
|
+1.57%
|
Change
|
+340.00
|
+265.00
|
+1,335.00
|
+220.00
|
Natural Rubber Import Market
Price (unit: $/mt, RMB/mt)
|
Date
|
STR 20 spot
|
SMR 20
spot
|
STR 20
mixed spot
|
STR 20 cargo
|
STR 20
mixed cargo
|
SVR 3L
mixed cargo
|
STR 20 mixed
|
Sep 5, 2024
|
1,795-1,805
|
1,795-1,805
|
1,810-1,820
|
1,820-1,835
|
1,820-1,835
|
1,850-1,860
|
14,500-14,600
|
Sep 6, 2024
|
1,835-1,845
|
1,835-1,845
|
1,850-1,860
|
1,860-1,870
|
1,860-1,870
|
1,880-1,880
|
14,850-14,950
|
Sep 9, 2024
|
1,880-1,890
|
1,880-1,890
|
1,880-1,890
|
1,880-1,890
|
1,880-1,890
|
1,910-1,910
|
15,150-15,200
|
Sep 10, 2024
|
1,870-1,880
|
1,870-1,880
|
1,870-1,880
|
1,875-1,890
|
1,875-1,890
|
1,900-1,900
|
15,000-15,100
|
Sep 11, 2024
|
1,860-1,870
|
1,860-1,870
|
1,865-1,875
|
1,875-1,890
|
1,875-1,890
|
1,900-1,900
|
14,950-15,000
|
Avg. last week
|
1,830.00
|
1,830.00
|
1,841.50
|
1,853.00
|
1,855.00
|
1,872.00
|
14,765.00
|
Avg. this week
|
1,853.00
|
1,853.00
|
1,860.00
|
1,868.50
|
1,868.50
|
1,889.00
|
14,930.00
|
Change rate
|
+1.26%
|
+1.26%
|
+1.00%
|
+0.84%
|
+0.73%
|
+0.91%
|
+1.12%
|
Change
|
+23.00
|
+23.00
|
+18.50
|
+15.50
|
+13.50
|
+17.00
|
+165.00
|
Market Review
Prices of
RMB-denominated natural rubber spot resources perked up this week. Within this
week, prices of Shanghai natural rubber futures climbed, driving up the spot
price accordingly. Recently, affected by the typhoon “Capricorn”, heavy
rainfalls hit the main producing areas of natural rubber, curbing the rubber
tapping work. Besides, in some areas, processing plants faced power outage and
unit shutdown. Thus, players worried about the sluggish output release of
natural rubber, strongly bolstering the overall price. As seen from downstream
demand, last week, many downstream tire enterprises purchased natural rubber when
its price was low. Thus, this week, with natural rubber prices rising, high
cost dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Therefore, the trading
atmosphere was average in the spot natural rubber market, with tepid dealings.
Market
Forecast
Forecast:
China’s natural rubber market may fluctuate at highs next week. In the short
run, the market price of natural rubber may continue to be bolstered by low
supply. On the one hand, affected by rainfalls in producing areas, the output
release of new field latex may be slow. Thus, the feedstock price is likely to
remain firm, leading to a high cost. On the other hand, imported shiploads arriving
at ports may be limited, so the spot inventory of natural rubber in China may
continue to be low. As seen from the demand, due to the average end market,
tire enterprises may show thin appetites for purchasing feedstock on high cost
pressure. Meanwhile, the expected resource outflow from the National
Food and Strategic Reserves Administration may pose pressure on the natural
rubber price. Therefore, in the short term, the natural rubber price is
estimated to hover at highs. It is estimated that the
weekly average price of SCRWF in Shanghai may be RMB 15,350/mt,
and
its mainstream prices may be in the range of RMB 15,000-15,700/mt.
Players should pay attention to the status of resource outflow from the National
Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, as well as the impact of macro
commodity co-movement on the natural rubber market.
Supply: In the
short run, rainfalls in China’s and overseas producing areas are likely to
disturb the output release of new field latex. Affected by abnormal weather,
players may worry about the status of supply release. Meanwhile, in September,
the natural rubber resources flowing to the warehouse may be limited. The spot
inventory in China may remain low.
Sentiment:
Due to average end demand, downstream tire enterprises may show
thin purchasing appetites on high cost pressure. Thus, the demand may hardly
see increments. Besides, it is heard that the rigid demand in the internation