After the holiday, China’s PVC paste prices moved up. As of October 12, mainstream dealing prices of general material in East China hovered at RMB 7,350-8,150/mt, with an average quarterly price of RMB 7,750/mt, up 2.31% from end-September. In North China, glove material prices hovered at RMB 7,600-7,800/mt, with an average price of RMB 7,700/mt, up 0.65% from end-September.

The main driving factors behind the post-holiday increase in PVC paste resin prices stem from macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment. At the end of September, macroeconomic factors, such as bullish policies and a significant surge in stock market trading volumes, led to rapid increases in major indices and commodity futures, fueling positive market sentiment. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil prices rose, coupled with expectations for more monetary easing policies, further boosting market sentiments. After the holiday, some producers raised offers tentatively, and downstream inquiry activity picked up. However, as the impact of macroeconomic factors waned, market sentiment gradually returned to a more rational state. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a need-to basis.

In H2 October, PVC paste fundamentals may be the main price driver.

Supply: According to SCI, the average operating rate of the PVC paste industry is around 75% recently, remaining relatively high. In H2 October, inventory and sales pressure should be noticed.

Demand: Orders at glove product producers are tepid. Low export prices affect downstream enterprises’ production and procurement enthusiasm. Downstream enterprises may mainly purchase on a need-to basis, with demand for higher-priced grades expected to remain subdued. Some general material downstream enterprises still have feedstock inventory.

Feedstock: In the short term, the calcium carbide market may exhibit regional price differences. EXW prices may first stabilize and then drop, while purchasing prices may be range-bound. Calcium carbide output may increase, coupled with bearish sentiments, so calcium carbide producers may cut offers amid higher sales pressure. PVC producers may hold purchasing prices stable in the short term due to limited unloading feedstock resources and cost support.

On the whole, PVC paste prices may remain range-bound in H2 October as market sentiments return to normalize.