Introduction: In December 2024, China’s import volume of natural rubber increased both YoY and MoM. Compared with the same period in history, the total import volume in December 2024 was higher than the average level of the past five years (592.1kt). In terms of rubber types, the import volume of the main types all increased MoM. On the YoY basis, only the import volume of standard rubber and compound rubber declined YoY. It is expected that China’s import volume of natural rubber is likely to drop both YoY and MoM in January 2025.

1. China’s natural rubber import volume increased both YoY and MoM in December

According to GACC, in December 2024, the import volume of natural rubber was approximately 640.7kt, up 14.18% MoM and 8.16% YoY. The cumulative import volume for the whole year was around 5,659.3kt, down 827.5kt or 12.75% YoY. The cumulative decline continued to narrow. The main overseas producing areas ushered in the production peak period, and the output growth supported the increase in export volume. From September to October, as the price spread between spot and futures of non-standard rubber widened and arbitragers added positions, the import volume of natural rubber increased bolstered by the successive arrivals of shipments at ports.

2. December natural rubber imports by types

As for the import of various natural rubber types in December, all showed an MoM growth trend. On the YoY basis, only the imports of standard rubber and compound rubber declined. Among them, the type of natural rubber with the largest import volume in China was still mixed rubber in December, with an import volume of 379.1kt, up 15.56% MoM, achieving six consecutive months of growth. It increased by 16.01% YoY, ranking at the second-highest level in the same period in history.

2.1 The Import volume of mixed rubber rose 15.56% MoM and 16.01% YoY in December

The import volume of mixed rubber was 379.1kt in December, making six consecutive months of MoM growth. The cumulative decline throughout the year narrowed to 13.21%, with a YoY growth of 13.21% in December. The MoM growth was mainly supported by the significant increase in imports from Thailand and Vietnam. In December, China imported 165.1kt of mixed rubber from Thailand, reaching a new high within the year, with an MoM growth of 24.89%. On the one hand, Thailand entered the production peak season, resulting in an increase in output. On the other hand, the price of Thailand’s mixed rubber has been more robust since Q3 and has been higher than the price of standard rubber in the USD market. Therefore, upstream enterprises focused on producing mixed rubber with more profit margins, leading to an increase of volume arriving at ports in China. In Vietnam, the weather in producing areas remained normal during the production peak season from November to December. Coupled with high feedstock price stimulating the output release, the import volume during the production peak season went up. The import volume of mixed rubber from Vietnam in December was 143.8kt, up 14.86% MoM. The import volume of mixed rubber in December increased YoY, mainly bolstered by the YoY growth in imports from Thailand.

2.2 The Import volume of standard rubber rose 3.99% MoM but down 8.83% YoY in December

The import volume of standard rubber in December was 182.1kt. The main import origins were Cote d’Ivoire, Laos and Thailand, with import volumes from these three countries accounting for 60% of the total. The implementation of the EUDR policy was postponed for one year, leading to an increase in the volume of African natural rubber exported to China. Meanwhile, with the combined support from the entry of quota for alternative plantation and the tax-free policy, the import volume from Laos remained at a high level. The import volume of standard rubber was mainly dragged down by the decline in the import volume from Thailand. In December, China only imported 33.2kt of standard rubber from Thailand, which was at a relatively low level compared with the same period in history. On the one hand, players in China preferred to purchase mixed rubber, resulting in a drop in the demand for standard rubber. On the other hand, the one-year delay of the EUDR policy led to a decrease in the enthusiasm for overseas procurement, with players only maintaining the purchase on rigid demand.

It is expected that China’s import volume of natural rubber is likely to trend downwards both YoY and MoM in January 2025. As seen from the historical seasonality, there is a 90% probability that the import volume of natural rubber may decline MoM in January. On the one hand, the shipments may not be normal due to the effect of the Spring Festival holiday. On the other hand, in December, the arrivals at ports in China each year are relatively high, putting pressure on the import volume of next January. The import volume is likely to trend downwards YoY. Firstly, the import volume was 568.7kt in January 2024, which was at the highest level compared with the same period in history. Secondly, the differences in the Spring Festival holiday time between 2024 and 2025 may affect the arrivals at ports.