|
China
Natural Rubber Mainstream Grade Market Price (unit: RMB/mt)
|
|
Date
|
Shanghai SCRWF
|
Shanghai SVR 3L mixed
|
Shandong RSS 3
|
Yunnan SCR 10
|
|
Jan 3, 2025
|
16,150-16,150
|
16,900-17,000
|
23,000-23,000
|
15,300-15,600
|
|
Jan 10, 2025
|
16,250-16,300
|
17,000-17,050
|
23,300-23,400
|
15,500-15,600
|
|
Jan 17, 2025
|
16,900-16,950
|
17,200-17,250
|
23,500-23,800
|
15,700-16,000
|
|
Jan 24, 2025
|
16,600-16,650
|
17,000-17,100
|
23,100-23,300
|
15,600-15,800
|
|
Avg. last month
|
16,522.06
|
17,097.06
|
23,332.35
|
15,672.06
|
|
Avg. this month
|
17,220.45
|
17,543.18
|
23,629.55
|
15,979.55
|
|
Change rate
|
-698.40
|
-446.12
|
-297.19
|
-307.49
|
|
Change
|
-4.06%
|
-2.54%
|
-1.26%
|
-1.92%
|
|
Natural Rubber Import Market
Price (unit: $/mt, RMB/mt)
|
|
Date
|
STR 20 spot
|
SMR 20
spot
|
STR 20
mixed spot
|
STR 20 cargo
|
STR 20
mixed cargo
|
SVR 3L
mixed cargo
|
STR 20 mixed rubber
|
|
Jan 3, 2025
|
1,960-2,000
|
1,955-1,990
|
1,925-1,940
|
1,955-1,960
|
1,940-1,955
|
2,020-2,020
|
15,950-16,050
|
|
Jan 10, 2025
|
1,990-2,020
|
1,980-2,010
|
1,955-1,965
|
1,985-1,990
|
1,970-1,980
|
2,020-2,050
|
16,150-16,200
|
|
Jan 17, 2025
|
2,060-2,070
|
2,040-2,060
|
1,975-2,000
|
2,020-2,050
|
2,000-2,020
|
2,030-2,040
|
16,350-16,450
|
|
Avg. last month
|
2,031.88
|
2,020.63
|
1,971.56
|
2,007.81
|
1,989.06
|
2,033.59
|
16,290.63
|
|
Avg. this month
|
2,074.66
|
2,074.66
|
2,051.14
|
2,073.30
|
2,070.68
|
2,110.11
|
16,820.45
|
|
Change rate
|
-42.78
|
-54.03
|
-79.57
|
-65.48
|
-81.62
|
-76.52
|
-529.83
|
|
Change
|
-2.06%
|
-2.60%
|
-3.88%
|
-3.16%
|
-3.94%
|
-3.63%
|
-3.15%
|
Market Review
In January, the
average market price of RMB-denominated natural rubber headed down MoM. In January, the
natural rubber market first fell, then rallied, and finally trended sideways,
with the monthly average price going lower MoM. In early January, due to the normal
climate in overseas producing areas, the output of new field latex was
sufficient. Players expected that the output would ramp up, weighing down the
natural rubber price. However, in mid-to-late January, affected by an exchange
for physicals of warehouse receipts, the inventory of natural rubber remained
low. Thus, the spot circulation was tight, pulling up the natural rubber price
from the bottom. Yet, in end-January, with the Spring Festival holiday drawing
near, the trading atmosphere turned insipid in the spot market. The overall
dealing was limited, and the natural rubber price mainly moved sideways.
Market
Forecast
In February, the
natural rubber price may remain range-bound, and the monthly
average price is likely to inch higher MoM. As seen
from the normal seasonality, overseas producing areas have been in the
production
slack season in February. Thus, the output release of new
field latex is expected to slow down. The feedstock price may stay at a
high level. High cost may underpin the natural rubber price from the bottom.
Meanwhile, in the short run, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber
may remain low, and the spot circulation may stay tight. Yet, after the Spring
Festival, with imported shiploads arriving at ports intensively, the supply
pressure may warm up gradually, pressuring the increment in natural rubber
prices. What’s more, after Trump takes office, players should pay attention to its
fiscal stimulus plan or adjustment of trade policy, which may influence the
commodity market. On the whole, in February, China’s natural rubber market may
remain range-bound.
It is
estimated that SCRWF prices in Shanghai will probably fluctuate at RMB 16,500-17,500/mt in February. Players
should closely eye on the external macro environment and arrival status
of imported shiploads.