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China
Natural Rubber Mainstream Grade Market Price (unit: RMB/mt)
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Date
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Shanghai SCRWF
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Shanghai SVR 3L mixed
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Shandong RSS 3
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Yunnan SCR 10
|
|
Feb 5, 2025
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16,400-16,450
|
17,000-17,000
|
23,000-23,000
|
15,600-15,800
|
|
Feb 6, 2025
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16,600-16,700
|
17,150-17,200
|
22,600-23,000
|
15,700-15,800
|
|
Avg. last week
|
16,840.00
|
17,220.00
|
23,440.00
|
15,830.00
|
|
Avg. this week
|
16,537.50
|
17,087.50
|
22,900.00
|
15,725.00
|
|
Change rate
|
-1.80%
|
-0.77%
|
-2.30%
|
-0.66%
|
|
Change
|
-302.50
|
-132.50
|
-540.00
|
-105.00
|
|
Natural Rubber Import Market
Price (unit: $/mt, RMB/mt)
|
|
Date
|
STR 20 spot
|
SMR 20
spot
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STR 20
mixed spot
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STR 20 cargo
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STR 20
mixed cargo
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SVR 3L
mixed cargo
|
STR 20 mixed
|
|
Feb 5, 2025
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1,990-2,010
|
1,980-2,000
|
1,980-1,990
|
2,000-2,020
|
1,970-1,995
|
2,020-2,040
|
16,250-16,350
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|
Avg. last week
|
2,081.50
|
2,067.00
|
2,002.50
|
2,045.00
|
2,024.00
|
2,044.50
|
16,520.00
|
|
Avg. this week
|
2,000.00
|
1,990.00
|
1,985.00
|
2,010.00
|
1,982.50
|
2,030.00
|
16,300.00
|
|
Change rate
|
-3.92%
|
-3.73%
|
-0.87%
|
-1.71%
|
-2.05%
|
-0.71%
|
-1.33%
|
|
Change
|
-81.50
|
-77.00
|
-17.50
|
-35.00
|
-41.50
|
-14.50
|
-220.00
|
Market Review
The average price of
RMB-denominated spot natural rubber trended down this week. During the Spring
Festival holiday, the trade policies of China and the US affected players’
sentiment towards transactions. Players adopted cautious sentiment on the first
day returning to the market. The mainstream prices of Shanghai natural rubber
futures moved down significantly, in tandem with falling spot price. Downstream
enterprises haven’t returned to the market, leading to a tepid trading
atmosphere and insipid transactions. Only a few arbitragers mainly swapped
contracts.
Market Forecast
Forecast: China’s
natural rubber market may remain range-bound next week. On the one hand, the
overseas tapping-suspension areas gradually expanded. Vietnam is currently
approaching the tapping-suspension period, and the producing areas in Thailand
are expected to fully suspend tapping work at the end of February or early
March. Thus, the feedstock price may remain firm and the high cost bolstered
the natural rubber price greatly. On the other hand, downstream enterprises may
gradually resume production successively next week, with the warming trading
atmosphere may drive up the natural rubber price. However, downstream
enterprises may mainly focus on the pre-holiday orders, with limited
improvements of actual rigid demand. At the same time, cargoes may arrive at
ports in succession after the holiday. The spot inventory of natural rubber
piled up, subduing the increment in natural rubber price. Thus, the natural
rubber price may remain range-bound in the short term. It is estimated that the
weekly average price of SCRWF in Shanghai may be RMB 16,750/mt, and its
mainstream prices may be in the range of RMB 16,500-17,000/mt. Players should
focus on the tapping-suspension node in producing areas and the influence of
macro environment on the co-movement with the commodity.
Cost:
As seen from the seasonal supply cycle, the producing areas in
Thailand and Vietnam have entered the tapping suspension period currently. In
Thailand, about 50%-60% of producing areas in Northeastern and Southern regions
have suspended tapping. The feedstock price remained high, underpinning the
natural rubber price from the bottom.
Inventory: After
the Spring Festival holiday, cargoes may arrive at ports in succession. As the
warehouse inflow volume at ports increased, the spot inventory is expected to
build up gradually, curbing the increment in natural rubber price.