In 2024, the energy sector in China
undergoes complex and multifaceted shifts, heralding a new stage of
high-quality development. The optimization of the energy consumption mix persists,
characterized by a consistent rise in the uptake of low-carbon options. The new
energy vehicle (NEV) sector experiences robust growth, with market penetration
achieving significant gains. Sales of LNG heavy-duty trucks have soared to
unprecedented levels, compressing the domain of conventional energy sources and
indicating a decline in diesel consumption. Additionally, ongoing technological
advancements and applications serve as catalysts for the transformation of
energy structure. Moving forward, the innovative evolution of the Chinese
energy market is expected to retain its stature as points of global interest.
Against this backdrop, SCI
successfully held China Oil & Gas Seminar at the CONRAD Hotel in London on February
25th, 2025, attracting more than 100 representatives from 70
companies, to discuss hot topics, market dynamics, and industry trends in
refining-chemical and natural gas industries. The event promoted an exchange of
ideas and shared discussions on the transformation, upgrading, and sustainable
development of China’s energy industries.
SCI Seminar
London 2025
Ms. Lindsay Xing,
Head of Overseas Sales, kicks off the seminar with a welcoming address,
extending appreciation to the participants for their presence. Ms. Ayu Liu,
proceeds to succinctly introduce SCI along with SCI’s strength in oil and gas
market solutions, which effectively facilitates reliable data-driven evidence
for decision-making in the commodity industry.
Head of Overseas Sales Ms. Lindsay Xing delivered the
opening speech
SCI Overseas BD Ms. Ayu Liu introduced SCI solutions
in China oil and gas markets
SCI Oil Analyst Vincent Zhou, Natural Gas Analyst Angel Chen, Kpler Crude Oil Analyst Muyu Xu and LNG & Natural Gas Insight Manager Laura Page presented comprehensive keynote
addresses on refining-chemical and natural gas industries afterwards. Their
presentations delineated the forecasts and potential opportunities within China’s
oil and natural gas markets, underpinned by an extensive array of data, a
thorough analysis of supply-demand fundamentals, key industry developments, etc.
First, SCI oil analyst Mr. Vincent Zhou
illustrated China’s oil industry in details with three parts: crude oil,
refined product and naphtha. He says, in 2024, both of China’s crude and
refined product demand performed lackluster. China’s crude throughput posted an
over 1.5% YoY decline, owing to low crude runs especially in the second half of
2024. In the meantime, the gasoline and diesel consumption dipped by over 3%
and 7% respectively, mainly due to rising substitutions from alternative
energies. According to SCI, in 2025, China’s gasoline and diesel demand may
shrink further. However, petrochemical demand is expected to be the new driver
boosting China’s crude demand. Specifically, the anticipated nearly 10 million
tons/a ethylene capacity additions are expected to perk up China’s naphtha
consumption, thus underpinning China’s crude throughput in 2025 to post a
moderate rise YoY. The crude runs at state-owned refineries are predicted to go
up notably with new project startup, less planned unit turnarounds and rising
petrochemical demand, while traditional independent refineries’ runs may fall
owing to feedstock issues and lukewarm refined product consumption.
SCI oil
analyst Mr. Vincent Zhou delivered keynote speech on refining-chemical
Afterwards, Kpler crude oil analyst Ms. Muyu Xu shared her deep insights
into the global crude market. She expects a surplus of approximately 220 kbd in
the global crude balance in 2025, driven by rising supply in the Atlantic Basin
and weaker European and North American demand due to a wave of refinery
shutdowns. According to Muyu, geopolitical uncertainties and the prospect of
tougher sanctions on a certain Middle East country add challenges to the OPEC+
to establish market stability and to defend oil prices. Given the expected
oversupply in 2025, OPEC+ will likely keep its voluntary cuts in place until Q4
2025. In addition, a mismatch in supply and demand across crude grades will
lead to narrower light-heavy differentials, a trend that could be further
exacerbated by Trump’s tariff and sanction policies. What’s more, she doesn’t
expect Red Sea shipping disruptions to ease anytime soon, given the still
volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East. However, an increasing
number of vessels are likely to resume transits through the Suez Canal in the
coming weeks.
Kpler crude oil analyst Ms. Muyu Xu
delivered keynote speech on crude oil
China’s LNG imports recovered in 2023,
and grew by almost 8% in 2024, despite economic headwinds and alternative gas
supplies. LNG imports in winter 2024 hit a speed bump, due to strong pre-winter
replenishments while warm winter. SCI natural gas analyst Ms. Angel Chen has interpreted
this evolution and conducted an in-depth analysis of LNG imports and spot LNG
imports in 2025. She predicts that high spot prices may subdue arbitrage demand
for spot LNG. Coupled with higher tariffs, some FOB cargoes may be rerouted.
Nonetheless, temperature in summer and winter, start-ups of new terminals
coupled with downstream demand expansion may underpin spot LNG imports for
periodical peak-shaving demand. As for downstream sector, boosted by steady
economic expansion, more gas availability along with national and industrial
policies, the growth rate of industrial demand will likely reach 8%,
outstripping that of the whole gas by 2%.
SCI analyst Ms. Angel Chen delivered keynote speech on
natural gas
For the last sector, Kpler LNG & natural
gas insight manager Ms. Laura Page comprehensively interpreted
the global NG market. Global LNG supply is currently forecasted to rise by 19
mt to 433 mt in 2025, led by new liquefaction capacity coming online in North
America. She assumes US sanctions will not be lifted on select LNG facilities
from a certain European country, which will keep Arctic LNG 2 offline, for now.
Europe will lead LNG demand growth in 2025 due to restocking needs ahead of
winter 2025-26. Kpler Insight expects EU-27 stocks to end this winter at 38%
full and reach 88% full ahead of next winter, just missing the European
Commission’s 90% target. The key risks to the market balance include the peace
talks between two European countries and whether there could be a resumption of
gas supply from a certain European country to Europe, potential relaxing of the
European Commission’s 1 November 90% storage target, liquefaction project
delays and a hot summer in Asia which would revive competition with Europe for
LNG supply.
Kpler
LNG
& natural gas insight manager Ms. Laura
Page delivered keynote speech on natural gas
Following the three-hour presentation and
subsequent discussions, delegates expressed a profound appreciation for the
depth of knowledge and professionalism demonstrated by the speakers. During the
seminar, all the speakers and participants engaged in thorough and meaningful
discussions that enriched the informative presentations. Additionally, the
representatives conveyed a strong interest in monitoring the progress of China’s
energy markets.
SCI will always adhere to a neutral third-party position, recording,
monitoring, and reporting the Chinese commodity market objectively,
impartially, and scientifically. SCI establishes, develops, and implements
methodologies and compliance requirements following the global highest
standards. With paid information, data, etc. as core values, SCI will continue focusing
on customer needs, to research and develop products and services for higher customer
satisfaction.