1. Market Price
2. Market Review
China’s
PVC powder market prices dropped after rising in February. Up to February 26,
the monthly average price of calcium carbide-based SG-5 was RMB 5,097/mt, up RMB
22/mt or 0.43% MoM.
Early
February coincided with the Chinese New Year, downstream enterprises halted
production for holidays. They recovered production gradually and returned to
normal operations around mid-February. After the holiday, strong performances
in domestic AI and tech stocks boosted commodity market sentiment. Additionally,
robust export deliveries at traders and enterprises supported a firm futures
market, driving spot prices higher. However, at the end of February, the export
delivery momentum weakened, and futures products related to the black sector
saw declines, leading to drops in PVC futures and spot prices. Throughout the
month, China’s market transactions were weak, while the export market remained
active.
3. Market
Forecast
SCI reckons that
China’s PVC powder prices will possibly inch up in March 2025, with the price
range of RMB 5,050-5,150/mt.
In March,
the recovery of China’s domestic consumption and the increase in exports may ease
the supply pressure, though the supply will likely remain high. Macro
atmospheres may give support to the PVC powder market to some extent. In April
and May, with bullish factors brought by the National People’s Congress and the
Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference being digested, changes in
policies should be noted. More PVC units will possibly be shut down for maintenance,
denting the industrial operating rate. Downstream demand will possibly be average,
while export orders may be decent due to price advantages. As for costs,
calcium carbide prices may inch down. The integrated profit at chlor-alkali producers
is expected to remain positive, failing to give stronger support to the PVC market.
PVC powder prices may fluctuate amid bullish and bearish factors existing. SCI
predicts that the average price of SG-5 in East China in March 2025, April 2025,
and May 2025 will likely be RMB 5,120/mt, RMB 5,150/mt, and RMB 5,070/mt
respectively.