|
China Natural Rubber Mainstream Grade
Market Price (unit: RMB/mt)
|
|
Date
|
Shanghai SCRWF
|
Shanghai SVR 3L mixed
|
Shandong RSS 3
|
Yunnan SCR 10
|
|
Mar 7, 2025
|
16,950-17,050
|
17,650-17,650
|
22,100-22,200
|
16,200-16,250
|
|
Mar 14, 2025
|
16,650-16,700
|
17,400-17,450
|
21,900-22,000
|
15,900-16,050
|
|
Mar 21, 2025
|
16,500-16,550
|
17,400-17,450
|
21,550-21,800
|
15,750-15,900
|
|
Mar 28, 2025
|
16,450-16,600
|
17,500-17,500
|
21,500-21,700
|
15,800-16,000
|
|
Avg. this month
|
16,711.25
|
17,470.00
|
21,902.50
|
16,001.25
|
|
Avg. last month
|
17,076.32
|
17,363.16
|
22,855.26
|
16,043.42
|
|
Change
|
-365.07
|
+106.84
|
-952.76
|
-42.17
|
|
Change rate
|
-2.14%
|
+0.62%
|
-4.17%
|
-0.26%
|
|
Natural Rubber Import Market
Price (unit: $/mt, RMB/mt)
|
|
Date
|
STR 20 spot
|
SMR 20
spot
|
STR 20
mixed spot
|
STR 20 cargo
|
STR 20
mixed cargo
|
SVR 3L
mixed cargo
|
STR 20 mixed rubber
|
|
Mar 7, 2025
|
2,070-2,090
|
2,060-2,080
|
2,070-2,080
|
2,075-2,120
|
2,070-2,090
|
2,130-2,130
|
16,900-16,950
|
|
Mar 14, 2025
|
2,040-2,050
|
2,030-2,040
|
2,040-2,050
|
2,040-2,085
|
2,035-2,060
|
2,125-2,130
|
16,700-16,750
|
|
Mar 21, 2025
|
2,035-2,045
|
2,025-2,035
|
2,035-2,045
|
2,040-2,060
|
2,040-2,060
|
2,120-2,120
|
16,600-16,650
|
|
Avg. this month
|
2,057.89
|
2,047.37
|
2,054.21
|
2,071.45
|
2,061.58
|
2,126.71
|
16,805.26
|
|
Avg. last month
|
2,094.74
|
2,085.00
|
2,055.66
|
2,089.34
|
2,069.74
|
2,091.45
|
16,881.58
|
|
Change
|
-36.84
|
-37.63
|
-1.45
|
-17.89
|
-8.16
|
+35.26
|
-76.32
|
|
Change rate
|
-1.76%
|
-1.80%
|
-0.07%
|
-0.86%
|
-0.39%
|
+1.69%
|
-0.45%
|
Market Review
In March,
the average market price of RMB-denominated natural rubber trended down MoM. Throughout
the month, the Shanghai natural rubber futures price continued to weaken, and
the spot prices of natural rubber closely followed suit, also declining. The
phenological conditions in the Yunnan producing area were normal, and the
tapping of new natural rubber gradually started. Meanwhile, the imports showed
a YoY increase, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventories at China’s
ports. As a result, the price of natural rubber faced downward pressure and
weakened. However, due to the slow pace of inventory accumulation at ports and
the tight liquidity of some rubber varieties, the price of mixed rubber still
had some support at its lower levels. In terms of spot trading, as downstream
product manufacturing enterprises had weak orders and the high feedstock price
dampened the overall purchasing sentiment, most of them mainly replenished
their inventories based on rigid demand when prices were low. Overall, the
trading atmosphere was rather lackluster.
Market
Forecast
In April,
the natural rubber price may fluctuate weakly, and the monthly average price is
likely to inch down MoM. On the supply side, based on the normal seasonality, the
tapping area of new natural rubber globally may expand further in April,
raising the market supply expectation. As a result, the price of natural rubber
is likely to face downward pressure. However, as seen from the spot inventory,
with the seasonal growth of imports marginally weakening, it is difficult for
the pace of inventory accumulation to increase significantly. On the demand
side, due to the insufficient new order expectations and the fact that
purchases are mainly driven by the rigid demand for feedstock, there is a lack
of growth in demand, which provides limited support for the price of natural
rubber. Overall, China’s natural rubber market may fluctuate weakly in April. It
is estimated that SCRWF prices in Shanghai may be in the range of RMB 16,000-17,000/mt
in April. Market players should pay close attention to the tapping situation in
domestic and overseas producing areas as well as the impact of external macro
policies.