Introduction: In Q3,
2024, China’s PVC paste prices first remained stable and then saw a downward
trend, with a slight rebound at the end of the quarter. On the supply side,
some PVC paste producers underwent concentrated maintenance, resulting in a
noticeable drop in the industrial operating rate. However, demand during July
and August remained weak due to the off-season, and the improvement in
September was limited, resulting in overall sluggish demand. For Q4,
supply-side pressure is expected to persist, and the extent of demand recovery
remains uncertain. The average price of PVC paste may move down further.
In Q3, China’s
PVC paste prices first remained stable and then saw a downward trend, with a
slight rebound at the end of the quarter. The average price in Q3 dropped compared
with Q2. As of September 27, mainstream dealing prices of general material in East
China hovered at RMB 7,150-7,850/mt, with an average quarterly price of RMB
7,771/mt, down 0.55% from Q2 and 4.87% YoY. The highest price was RMB 8,125/mt
in early-July, and the lowest one was RMB 7,350/mt in end-September. In North
China, glove material prices hovered at RMB 7,500-7,800/mt, with an average
price of RMB 7,885/mt, down 0.30% from Q2 and 2.79% YoY. The highest price was
RMB 8,125/mt in early-July, and the lowest one was RMB 7,600/mt in
end-September.
Although
PVC paste producers concentrated their maintenance in July and August, leading
to a reduction in industry operating rates, demand remained weak. Downstream
product manufacturers faced poor orders, and the combination of high
temperatures and heavy rains in southern China further affected operations,
reducing their enthusiasm for purchasing feedstock. In H1 September, the
expected peak demand season in the domestic market did not materialize, and
export orders from downstream industries underperformed. Due to India’s
anti-dumping measures, exports to the country were nearly halted, and China’s
PVC paste producers faced sales pressure. General-purpose PVC paste prices
continued to decline, while glove-grade demand remained stable, resulting in
little price movement. In late September, as downstream industries began
restocking ahead of the National Day holiday, with no significant inventory
pressure on the supply side, and macroeconomic policies including interest rate
cuts, loan rate reductions, and various innovative support tools announced by
the State Council Information Office, market sentiment was boosted. PVC paste
prices rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved.
In Q3,
Some PVC paste producers concentrated their maintenance activities, resulting
in a decline in industry operating rates.
As of
September 26, the operating load for the PVC paste industry stood at 68.60%, a
5.63 percentage point drop compared to Q2. The ethylene-based PVC paste
industrial operating rate was 54.86%, up 0.97 percentage points QoQ. From July
to August, PVC paste units underwent intensive unit maintenance, propping up
the output loss. In September, with the unit restart, the PVC paste output rose
gradually. PVC paste output in Q3 was around 284.4kt, down 6.14% QoQ. Though
most PVC paste producers faced no inventory pressure, they faced sales pressure
due to soft demand. Thus, PVC paste prices saw a downward trend.
In Q3, glove-grade
demand was passable, and general-purpose demand was average.
In Q3, the
operating levels of downstream PVC glove manufacturers remained relatively
stable, with 460-500 production lines in operation. In July and August,
glove-grade downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a need-to basis. In
September, export orders for glove products saw a price decline, leading to
reduced operations at some small and medium-sized glove manufacturers, while
large manufacturers slightly increased their production lines. PVC glove
exports in July and August amounted to 8.416 billion pairs, representing a
30.65% YoY increase.
For
general-purpose PVC, downstream demand in Q3 was tepid. July and August, being
traditionally low-demand months, saw weak orders and operations in industries
like leather and foam materials. High temperatures and heavy rainfall in the
southern region further weakened production activity. Procurement of feedstock
was mainly limited to essential needs. Despite September being the start of the
traditional high-demand season, orders in some downstream sectors showed no
improvement. The coated fabric industry was driven by short-term orders, with
no long-term export orders placed. The toy industry experienced mixed demand
and operations, while other general-purpose PVC sectors showed mediocre demand
overall. In the first half of September, demand remained weak. However, by the
second half, restocking ahead of the National Day holiday led to a short-term
improvement in demand as downstream manufacturers entered the market for bulk
purchases.
Exports
decreased weighed on domestic sales pressure.
Due to the
preliminary anti-dumping ruling issued by India’s Ministry of Commerce and
Industry on April 26, 2024, targeting PVC paste resin from mainland China,
Korea, Malaysia, Norway, Thailand, and Taiwan, exports to India began to
decline significantly from May and June, with nearly no shipments in July and
August. China’s PVC paste exports in July and August 2024 totaled 15.7kt, a
41.96% YoY decrease. With weak export demand, China’s PVC paste manufacturers
continue to face pressure in the domestic market.