Introduction: China’s PVC
powder exports in March increased by 11.13% MoM and 23.34% YoY. Orders at producers
remained stable in February and March, while traders saw an increase in export
orders. This was mainly due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse
receipts in East China, leading to a large inflow of older inventory into the
market, which offered significant price advantages. As a result, monthly exports
reached a historic high in March. However, with some ethylene-based PVC units
undergoing maintenance in April and slower delivery speeds, exports are
expected to decline.
In March,
PVC exports totaled 366.3kt, up 11.13% MoM and 23.34% YoY. The main export
destinations were South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. The top five
trading partners were India, Vietnam, the UAE, Russia, and Thailand, accounting
for 230.1kt (62.82% of total exports). On a quarterly basis, PVC exports from
January to March reached 976.3kt, a 55.93% increase compared to the same period
last year (626.1kt). The significant growth was driven by two factors: First, China’s
export prices continued to decline, creating a clear low-price advantage.
Second, adjustments in U.S. tariff policies after Trump’s election led to a
rush of re-export orders to Southeast Asia.
Mar China PVC Powder Export TOP5 Destination
Unit: kt
|
|
February
|
March
|
MoM
change
|
|
India
|
143.9
|
163.1
|
+19.2
|
|
Vietnam
|
16.9
|
24.2
|
+7.3
|
|
UAE
|
16.9
|
16.8
|
-0.1
|
|
Russia
|
10.2
|
15.7
|
+5.5
|
|
Thailand
|
6.4
|
10.3
|
+3.9
|
Source: GACC
According
to sample producers’ newly added export orders and orders to be delivered, newly
added export orders were steady. Some calcium carbide-based producers reported
a notable decline in export orders compared to last year mainly because the EXW
price was higher than the market price, making traders and warehouse stocks
more competitive. Thus, new added orders at some calcium carbide-based
producers in Q1 decreased YoY. In contrast, major ethylene-based PVC producers
were less affected, as some had direct overseas sales channels with stable
client bases.
The
increase in traders’ export orders was attributed to two factors: First, all
PVC warehouse receipts must be canceled by the end of March each year, and with
a high concentration of delivery warehouses in East China, many low-priced PVC
resources entered the market. Second, shipping costs from East China ports to
India were lower than those from ports in northern China.
Entering
April, some ethylene-based producers reported that May export delivery slots
were already full, slowing new order intake. Additionally, several major
ethylene-based PVC units were shut down for maintenance, further delaying
deliveries. Historically, exports tend to decline in Q2 as Southeast and South
Asia enter their rainy seasons in June-July, reducing downstream demand.
Therefore, PVC exports in April are expected to see a slight decrease compared
to March.