In March 2025, LNG import volume showed the biggest YOY drop this winter, mainly due to warm weather and high spot LNG prices. It is anticipated that LNG import volume in April will decline MOM and YOY.

Volume: In March 2025, China’s LNG import volume was 4.97 MMt, up 0.47 MMt or 10.46% MOM, and down 1.61MMt or 24.51% YOY. In 2025, China’s cumulative LNG import volume was 15.56 MMt, a decrease of 4.29 MMt or 21.61% YOY.

According to SCI’s AIS monitoring, China’s LNG imports stood at 4.95 MMt in March 2025, up 9.09% MOM and down 25.56% YOY. Please note that there are differences between the AIS data and customs data that may be caused by the pre-clearance or delayed clearance documented progress, free-bond cargo clearance, historical data backtrace and revision, etc.

Looking at historical patterns, the LNG import volume in March tended to show a YOY increase from 2016 to 2023 except in 2022, when tight international supply and slipping seasonal demand subdued imports. The YOY decline in LNG import volume in March 2025 mainly came after mild weather, underperformed economy and firm spot LNG prices. First, mild winter subdued heating demand. The temperature in March was 0.8 degrees higher than the historical average. Second, the PMI registered at 50.5, down 0.3 YOY, indicating that gas demand from industrial was sluggish.

Third, the tariff caused the rerouting of some FOB cargoes from the U.S. to Europe. In addition, high spot LNG prices subdued the purchase of domestic importers.

Price: The average LNG import price in March was $514.52/mt, down 6.39% MOM and down 5.84% YOY.

The YOY decline in LNG import prices was mainly caused by the downtrend in crude oil prices. In addition, the average theoretical arbitrage space for imported LNG was RMB 646/mt in March, a MOM increase of 138% and a YOY rise of 1,794%. The increase in import arbitrage mainly came after domestic buoyant LNG prices amid the decline in supply of Chinese-made LNG and curtailment in spot LNG imports. Domestic LNG ex-terminal prices rallied by 2.61% MOM to RMB 123.15/mt.

Forecast

LNG import volume in April is anticipated to trend down both MOM and YOY. LNG import prices will likely inch down MOM.

Volume: Judging from the historical patterns, over the six years since 2018, LNG import volume in April increased MOM in five years except in 2022.

Sluggish industrial demand, healthy domestic production and ramping-up of piped gas flows and high base in April 2024 will be the main factors for the YOY decline in LNG import volume in April 2025. Gas demand from industrial users especially from traditional industrial sectors will continue to underperform. Coupled with the tariff issue, some export-oriented enterprises may face declines in orders.

Price: It is expected that the comprehensive LNG import prices in April will inch down MOM. The share of imports of spot LNG with high prices is estimated to be small, so LNG import prices will be in line with slipping contracted LNG prices.