Highlights
In 2023, the China’s base oil capacity growth slowed down, and the industrial run rate ebbed to a historical low, impeded by sluggish downstream demand, so both the supply and demand for base oil were weak. From January to August, China’s total base oil output was 4,452.5kt, up 1.53% Y-O-Y. In the first 7 months of 2023, China’s total base oil import volume was 1,137kt, down 4.96% Y-O-Y. Accordingly, the total base oil supply from January to August 2023 was expected to be roughly 5,724.5kt, up 0.88% Y-O-Y.
The prices of base oil in China were higher than expected in 2023, mainly backed by unit turnarounds, tepid downstream demand and influence of related-product markets. The prices of base oil saw frequent changes but remained high overall, and unit production profits were considerable. Lubricating oil industry is the major downstream industry of base oil and has entered a mature stage when development is steady. The high base oil prices impacted the profits in downstream industries, and downstream users eyed on their cost significantly in this year. In the meantime, declines in the number of medium and small-scale producers led to downward base oil blending volume, mainly owing to macro environment, rapid development of new energy vehicle industry as well as shuffling of base oil industry.
On June 30, 2023, China’s State Taxation Administration rolled out a policy that consumption tax will be collected from petroleum ether, crude white oil, light white oil and some industrial white oil (No. 5, 7, 10, 15, 22, 32, 46), following the specification of solvent oil. As per the white oil supply-demand data in 2023, China’s industrial white oil capacity, output and downstream demand all posted notable declines after the implementation of the policy. China’s white oil industry was in an adjustment stage in 2023, and with the rectification of the market, more resources will flow to white oil end users, so the overall white oil demand could see a drastic drop.
This report reviews and analyzes China’s base oil market in 2023 based on the original data investigated by SCI and the authoritative data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the General Administration of Customs, the National Development and Reform Commission, and insights of senior experts in the industry, domestic mainstream suppliers, traders and downstream producers. Through comprehensive and in-depth data analysis and fundamental interpretation, this report systematically shows the current situation and future development trend of China’s base oil market, and provides more powerful argument support for business decisions.
Report value
1. Analysis of China’s base oil supply-demand pattern evolutions and outlook
2. Regional supply-demand balance analysis that keeps clients abreast of China’s base oil supply-demand fundamental details
3. China base oil downstream consumption pattern and development highlights
4. Base oil price driver analysis via multiple perspectives, which helps clients assess base oil industrial chain value objectively
Contents
Part 1 Base Oil Market Overview
Part 2 2019-2023 Base Oil Market Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
2.1 2019-2023 Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Trend Analysis
2.2 2023 Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Feature and Price Relation Analysis
Part 3 Base Oil Supply Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
3.1 Global Base Oil Capacity Analysis
3.1.1 Global Base Oil Capacity Layout Overview
3.1.2 2023 Global Base Oil Trade Flow Analysis
3.2 2019-2023 China Base Oil Capacity Analysis
3.2.1 China Base Oil Capacity Development Analysis
3.2.1.1 Base Oil Capacity Development Trend Analysis
3.2.1.2 Base Oil Capacity Concentration Ratio Analysis
3.2.1.3 Base Oil Existing Capacity Technology Structure Feature Analysis
3.2.1.4 Base Oil Existing Capacity and Technology
3.2.2 China Base Oil Capacity Regional Layout Analysis
3.2.2.1 Base Oil Regional Capacity Analysis
3.2.2.2 Base Oil Coastal Capacity Analysis
3.2.3 2023 China Base Oil Trade Flow Analysis
3.2.3.1 China Base Oil Major Consumption Region and Volume Analysis
3.2.3.2 China Base Oil Major Production Region and Output Analysis
3.2.3.3 China Base Oil Trade Flow Feature and Influence Analysis
3.2.4 2024-2028 China Base Oil Newly Added Capacity
3.2.4.1 2024-2028 China Base Oil Capacity Forecast
3.2.4.2 2024 China Base Oil Newly Added Capacity
3.3 2019-2023 China Base Oil Output Trend Analysis
3.3.1 2019-2023 China Base Oil Output
3.3.1.1 China Base Oil Annual Output and Capacity Utilization Analysis
3.3.1.2 China Base Oil Annual Output by Region Analysis
3.3.2 2023 China Base Oil Production Feature and Reason Analysis
3.3.2.1 2023 China Base Oil Monthly Output Trend and Influence Analysis
3.3.2.2 2023 China Base Oil High-Frequency Production Data Feature Analysis
3.4 2019-2023 China Base Oil Import Analysis
3.4.1 2019-2023 China Base Oil Import Data Analysis
3.4.1.1 China Base Oil Import Volume Trend Analysis
3.4.1.2 China Base Oil Import by Trade Partner Analysis
3.4.1.3 China Base Oil Import by Trade Mode Analysis
3.4.2 2023 China Base Oil Import Change Analysis
3.4.2.1 China Monthly Base Oil Import Volume and Feature Analysis
3.4.2.2 2023 Base Oil Import Influence on China Total Supply Analysis
3.5 2023 Base Oil Inventory Change Analysis
3.5.1 Inventory Change Feature and Its Relation with Supply-Demand Analysis
3.5.2 Relation Between Inventory and Price Analysis
3.6 Base Oil Storage and Logistics Status Analysis
3.6.1 Base Oil Storage and Logistics Status and Policy Analysis
3.6.2 Storage and Logistics Cost Analysis
3.6.3 Storage and Logistics Change and Its Influence on Price Analysis
3.7 2024 China Base Oil Supply Forecast
3.7.1 2024-2028 China Base Oil Total Supply Forecast
3.7.2 2024 China Monthly Base Oil Supply and Its Influence on Price Forecast
Part 4 Base Oil Demand Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
4.1 2019-2023 China Base Oil Consumption Volume Trend Analysis
4.1.1 China Base Oil Annual Consumption Trend Analysis
4.1.2 China Base Oil Consumption from Major Downstream Industry Trend and Feature Analysis
4.1.3 China Base Oil Downstream Industry Layout and Regional Consumption Structure Analysis
4.1.4 China Base Oil Downstream Customer Scale and Demand Change Analysis
4.1.5 China Base Oil Major Downstream Region Customer Scale Analysis
4.2 2019-2023 China Base Oil Export Analysis
4.2.1 2019-2023 China Base Oil Export Data Analysis
4.2.1.1 China Base Oil Export Trend Analysis
4.3 2024-2028 China Base Oil Downstream Industry Demand Growth Forecast
4.3.1 Lubricating Oil Market Scale Analysis and Demand Forecast
4.3.2 Lubricating Grease Market Scale Analysis and Demand Forecast
4.3 2024-2028 China Base Oil Consumption Volume Forecast
4.4.1 China Base Oil Consumption Volume Trend Analysis
4.4.2 China Base Oil Export Volume Trend Analysis
4.5 Base Oil Demand Slack and Peak Seasons Analysis
4.5.1 Base Oil Demand Slack and Peak Seasonality Feature Analysis
4.5.2 Base Oil Demand Slack and Peak Seasons Analysis from Perspective of Price
4.6 Base Oil Downstream Purchase Key Influencing Factor Analysis
4.7 Base Oil Operator Operation Risk and Barrier Analysis
Part 5 Base Oil Price Trend Analysis
5.1 China Base Oil Market Price Analysis
5.1.1 Price Change Feature Trend Analysis
5.1.1.1 Overall Price Trend Feature Analysis
5.1.1.2 Major Region Price Feature Analysis
5.1.2 2023 Price Seasonality Feature Analysis
5.2 Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.2.1 Base Oil and Major Feedstock Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.2.2 Base Oil and Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.3 Base Oil Cost and Profit Analysis
5.3.1 Base Oil Cost Structure and Change Analysis
5.3.2 Base Oil Profit Change and Influencing Factor Analysis
5.3.2.1 Base Oil Profit Trend and Feature Analysis
5.3.2.2 Influence of Profit on Enterprise Production Analysis
Part 6 2023 White Oil Market and Supply-Demand Pattern Analysis
6.1 2023 China White Oil Market Overview
6.2 2019-2023 China White Oil Capacity Analysis
6.3 2019-2023 China White Oil Output Analysis
6.4 China White Oil Demand Analysis
6.4.1 2019-2023 China White Oil Demand Analysis
6.4.2 China High-End White Oil Import Analysis
6.5 2024-2026 China White Oil Price Forecast and Price Driver Analysis
Part 7 Base Oil Industry Outlook
7.1 2024-2026 Base Oil Price Trend Forecast
7.2 Base Oil Market Driver Future Development Forecast
7.2.1 Influence of Macro Environment on Base Oil Market Forecast
7.2.2 Influence of Industrial Policy on Base Oil Market Forecast
7.2.3 2024-2028 China Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
7.2.3.1 2024-2028 China Base Oil Supply-Demand Trend and Feature Forecast
7.2.3.2 2024 China Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
7.2.4 2024-2028 China Base Oil Trade Flow Forecast
7.2.5 Base Oil Industrial Value Chain Analysis and Forecast
7.2.6 Related Product Price Co-Movement Forecast
7.3 2024 Base Oil Major Price Driver Influencing Extent Forecast
Appendix
I. Base Oil Market Hotspots
II. Base Oil Industry Annual Event
III. Data Methodology and Related Definition
IV. Tables & Charts
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