Global energy consumption has witnessed a sustained growth in recent years. The global climate change has prompted increased investments in clean energy worldwide, aiming to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and foster sustainable development. In 2023, China’s new energy sector has exhibited a swift expansion, propelled by China’s “dual carbon” and robust governmental support for the industry’s advancement. Traditional energy industries are likely to confront intensified challenges.

Meanwhile, China’s pulp and paper sector is presently experiencing a cyclical low. Bolstered by the gradual resurgence of the macro economy and the launch of financial derivatives, including pulp options and paper futures, China’s pulp and paper sector is poised for an accelerated growth.

Against this backdrop, SCI successfully held China Oil, Gas and Pulp Seminar at the Sheraton Hotel in London on February 28^th, attracting more than 140 representatives from 90 companies, to discuss hot topics, market dynamics, and industry trends in oil refining, natural gas, and pulp industries. The event promoted an exchange of ideas and shared discussions on the transformation, upgrading, and sustainable development of China’s energy and pulp industries.

SCI Seminar London 2024

Ms. Lindsay Xing, Head of Overseas Sales, kicked off the seminar with a welcoming address, extending appreciation to the participants for their presence. She proceeded to succinctly introduce SCI along with its comprehensive data management system. Lindsay illuminated SCI’s robust research framework, standardized procedures for data production and release, and stringent data monitoring system, all of which guarantee the systematic, meticulous, and standardized release of SCI data. This, in turn, facilitates reliable data-driven evidence for decision-making in the commodity industry.

Head of Overseas Sales Ms. Lindsay Xing delivered the opening speech

SCI analysts James Gao, Angel Chen, and Ricky Wang presented comprehensive keynote addresses on the topics of oil refining, natural gas, and pulp industries afterwards. Their presentations delineated the forecasts and potential opportunities within China’s oil, natural gas, and pulp markets, underpinned by an extensive array of data, a thorough analysis of supply-demand fundamentals, key industry developments, and the future trajectory of each sector.

James Gao starts with the supply-demand balance of Chinese oil products, elaborating in detail on the factors influencing the supply and demand of oil products in China in 2023, and analyzing the new characteristics of China’s crude oil imports and product exports. Over the next five years, against the backdrop of new capacity additions, China’s crude oil demand is expected to continue to grow. In 2024, China’s oil refining industry is predicted to witness a wave of newly added capacity at Shandong Yulong Petrochemical and Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, adding CDUs’ capacity of 31 million mt/a totally. James Gao believes that the market competition will become even more severe. In the future, yields of products will be further optimized as China’s domestic oil refining & chemical integration projects come online successively. In the meantime, China will continue to improve its oil storage and transportation systems to provide necessary support for healthy growth of the oil refining industry.

SCI analyst Mr. James Gao delivered keynote speech on oil refining

In 2023, China’s LNG import volume saw a resurgence, reclaiming its position as the world's largest LNG importer. Meanwhile, natural gas consumption grew by 7.5% year-on-year, amid the steady recovery of China economy, making China the second-largest consumer of natural gas globally. Angel Chen interpreted this evolution and conducted an in-depth analysis towards both the short-term and medium to long-term markets. She predicts that the growth rate of natural gas consumption may reach 8.5% in 2024, and the industrial sector will probably continue to dominate natural gas consumption with a 40% market share, with the decrease in gas prices, further economic recovery, and the drive of the coal-to-gas policy. In the medium to long term, under policies favoring clean and low-carbon energy, China's potential for natural gas consumption is enormous, with consumption expected to exceed 700 bcm by 2030. In addition to the industrial sector, gas power is also expected to enter a golden decade of development in 2026, driven by a more abundant supply of natural gas and electric power pricing reforms. For an extended period in the future, China's natural gas supply and consumption will maintain a relatively high growth.

SCI analyst Ms. Angel Chen delivered keynote speech on natural gas

For the last sector, Ricky Wang interpreted the market fluctuations of China's pulp market for 2023 and provided a forecast for China's pulp market demand under the period of capacity expansion. He expects that with the continuous release of global pulp and paper capacities, the growth rates of market supply and demand for pulp will be 8% and 7% respectively in 2024. As supply growth continues to exceed that of demand, the pulp supply-demand gap may continue to widen and reach its peak in 2024. In the medium to long term, China's pulp demand will likely maintain steady growth, influenced by the continuous release of new capacity and industry policies, and the industry profits are expected to improve, with the degree of industry integration further increasing. At the same time, downstream consumption patterns are changing significantly, which is led by the expansion of capacities in tissue paper and ivory board, while the proportion of cultural and printing paper consumption is gradually shrinking.

SCI analyst Mr. Ricky Wang delivered keynote speech on pulp

Following the two-hour presentation and subsequent discussions, delegates expressed a profound appreciation for the depth of knowledge and professionalism demonstrated by SCI’s analysts. The participants acknowledged the credibility of SCI’s data and its interpretations. Additionally, the representatives conveyed a strong interest in monitoring the progress of China’s energy and pulp markets.

SCI Seminar London 2024

During the seminar, all the speakers and participants engaged in thorough and meaningful discussions that enriched the informative presentations. SCI will always adhere to a neutral third-party position, recording, monitoring, and reporting the Chinese commodity market objectively, impartially, and scientifically. SCI establishes, develops, and implements methodologies and compliance requirements following the global highest standards. With paid information, data, etc. as core values, SCI will continue focusing on customer needs, to research and develop products and services for higher customer satisfaction.