Introduction: In 2024, China's PVC powder export market experienced periodic disruptions due to India’s BIS certification policy and significant fluctuations in sea freight. However, export growth remained steady. According to GACC, China’s PVC powder exports reached 1,940.1kt from January to September 2024, up 9.9% YoY.

By early November, there were four notable export order surges: twice in February, once in mid-August, and once in late September.

Specifically, early February saw an uptick in export orders as foreign buyers purchased low-priced resources to replenish inventory ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Following the holiday in mid-late February, export orders surged as Formosa Plastics raised March cargo price by $30/mt to $820/mt CIF India, creating a favorable $60/ton price gap between Chinese-made calcium carbide-based PVC resources and Formosa Plastics’ offers. Ethylene-based PVC remained relatively high-priced, leading to modest order volume. The third surge occurred in mid-August due to the low prices of Chinese-made resources, which boosted foreign inquiry and purchase interest, while ethylene-based prices remained high, with moderate orders. The fourth export order growth in late September was driven by high Formosa Plastics’ offers, which made Chinese mainland PVC prices competitive. In other months, exports improved periodically when China’s price advantages appeared.

Monthly export volume shows that the first quarter of 2024 saw relatively high exports, mainly due to concentrated procurement in February for India. This led to high domestic export orders, with peak deliveries in March. In the second quarter, exports gradually declined, impacted by India’s BIS certification and volatile sea freight. In the third quarter, exports rose again as China’s PVC powder prices were highly competitive, releasing some speculative demand from India with concentrated purchases.

Exports from January to September 2024 show that India and Vietnam accounted for 54.02% and 6.37% of total export volume respectively, up 3.26 and 1.97 percentage points from the same period in 2023. This increase is mainly due to growing demand in both countries, with India’s demand growth outpacing Vietnam’s. Other trading partners are primarily in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East.

In 2025, China’s PVC powder market is expected to remain in an oversupply state, with domestic products maintaining a certain price advantage. Before new capacity is commissioned in India, Chinese PVC powder exports are likely to continue growing. However, the export growth rate may narrow due to the upcoming Indian anti-dumping policy.