Pre-holiday dynamics: PVC downstream enterprises usually suspend operations 1–2 weeks before the Spring Festival, resulting in gradually weakening demand. During this period, producers rarely conduct maintenance, maintaining relatively high operating rates. Sales activities typically increase sharply in the two weeks leading up to the festival, as companies aim to secure orders in preparation for the procurement pause during the holiday. Consequently, the available inventory usually decreases significantly in the two weeks before the Spring Festival.

Holiday and post-holiday inventory trends: During the holiday, with downstream demand yet to recover and most producers maintaining stable operations, both plant inventory and social warehouse inventory generally increase. Some enterprises continue dispatching and transporting goods at a steady pace. However, available inventory tends to rise significantly due to holiday shutdowns in downstream sectors and among sales staff.

2022-2024 PVC Powder Inventory Change Around the Spring Festival

Unit: kt

According to SCI, in the past three years:

Available inventory decreased by 90-140kt in the two weeks before the Spring Festival. During the holiday, available inventory increased by 320-400kt, and the overall physical inventory rose by 240-260kt during the holiday.

Since 2023, the supply-demand imbalance in the PVC powder market has become increasingly apparent. By the 2024 Spring Festival, social inventory in East and South China had already reached relatively high levels. Limited storage capacity in warehouses constrained the accumulation of inventory during the 2024 holiday period. However, the continued oversupply in 2024 prompted increased demand for warehousing and delivery services, with additional warehouses participating in PVC powder storage, further expanding overall social storage capacity.

For the 2025 Spring Festival, downstream sectors are expected to begin holiday suspensions in mid-January. According to current maintenance plans, only Suzhou Huasu is scheduled for maintenance from January 20, lasting 2–3 weeks. Thus, PVC powder is expected to follow historical trends, with noticeable inventory accumulation during this period.

Social inventory and plant inventory remain below historical highs currently, leaving room for further accumulation. Both plant inventory and East/South China social inventory may increase. With the release of the 140kt/a PVC capacity at Cangzhou Julong and the 250kt/a PVC capacity at SP Chemical, the PVC output during the 2025 Spring Festival may be higher compared with the same period in 2024. With PVC powder prices currently at historically low levels and some producers facing significant cost pressures, PVC producers are reluctant to sell. Most producers are under limited inventory pressure. If PVC powder prices remain low for an extended period, the pre-holiday sales volume may be lower than in previous years, resulting in slightly higher plant inventory accumulation.

In summary, inventory accumulation around the 2025 Spring Festival is expected to be significant, with the extent potentially exceeding previous years due to higher output and expanded warehousing capacity.