From October to November 2024, China’s PVC powder prices generally showed a downward trend, reaching relatively low levels by early December 2024, and since then, China’s domestic PVC powder prices have continued to fluctuate at low levels. With the decline in domestic PVC powder market prices, export offers also decreased. During this period, the FOB China price for calcium carbide-based SG-5 PVC powder hovered at $612-640/mt, while CIF India prices hovered at $660-730/mt. This was over $40/mt lower than the CIF price of Formosa Plastics exports to India, which ranged from $740-785/mt, providing a clear price advantage for products produced in the Chinese mainland.

From December 2024 to January 2025, except during the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s PVC powder producers generally received good export orders, and the volume of orders awaiting delivery gradually increased to relatively high levels. After the buildup of inventory before and after the Chinese New Year holiday and the concentration of warehouse cancellations in March, China’s PVC powder spot supply increased, resulting in a relatively sufficient supply of spot products. Some producers faced sales pressure and became more proactive in fulfilling export orders. The volume of export orders awaiting delivery for sample producers decreased significantly in February-March. As export orders were fulfilled and new export orders were added, China’s domestic PVC powder exports in January and February 2025 increased significantly compared to December 2024, with the monthly export volume reaching a historical high of 329.6kt in February.

Weakened Price Advantages and Uncertainty of Indian Policy May Lead to Export Decrease in April

Recently, the CIF India price of Formosa Plastics has dropped by $40/mt, and additional discounts were offered for large orders. As a result, the price advantage of domestic PVC powder exports has been weakened, with only low-priced products still receiving export orders. Some producers have seen a decline in export orders compared to earlier periods. Moreover, there is market speculation that India’s anti-dumping policy may be implemented by the end of March, leading to more cautious sentiment among market participants. If India’s anti-dumping policy is enacted by the end of March with a short grace period, it may negatively affect the exports of domestic PVC powder producers and traders, potentially impacting the delivery and addition of some export orders.

Overall, in February and H1 March, China’s PVC powder producers saw weaker export order intake compared to January, though the delivery pace remained decent. It is expected that PVC powder exports in March will remain at a relatively high level but may decrease compared to February. With the weakening of the price advantage and the anticipated implementation of India’s anti-dumping policy, China’s PVC powder exports are expected to decline further in April.