1. Market Price

2. Market Review

China’s PVC powder market prices rose after falling in March. Up to March 28, the monthly average price of calcium carbide-based SG-5 was RMB 5,001/mt, down RMB 92/mt or 1.81% MoM.

First, PVC powder fundamentals improved to some extent during the month. In H1 March, China’s PVC powder fundamentals were in a weak balance, with limited overall driving forces. In H2 March, with an increase in unit maintenance as well as improvements in export orders and deliveries, PVC powder fundamentals showed marginal improvement. Second, during the month, calcium carbide prices rose, and the integrated profit at chlor-alkali producers shrank as caustic soda prices continued to decline. Thus, the cost support strengthened. Third, the macroeconomic environment showed mixed signals during the month. In H1, changes in U.S. tariff policies and concerns about a U.S. economic recession led to an increased risk aversion among market participants, creating a generally weak macroeconomic environment. In H2, expectations for China’s domestic interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, as well as potential changes in U.S. tariff policies, improved market sentiment, so atmospheres in the commodity market warmed up.

3. Market Forecast

SCI reckons that China’s PVC powder prices will possibly be range-bound in April 2025, with the price range of RMB 4,850-5,050/mt.

In April, China’s PVC powder demand can hardly improve notably. With more units undergoing maintenance, PVC powder social inventory may move down. There will be seasonal improvement in PVC powder fundamentals, but no long-term improvement expectations. In addition, the macroeconomic environment may carry uncertainties, and with futures nearing expiration, fluctuation may increase, making market participants cautious. Cost support from the bottom may strengthen, but it may fail to provide upward driving forces. On the whole, both bullish and bearish sentiments may exist in the market. In May and June, new PVC powder capacity is expected to come online, giving thinner support to the market. PVC powder demand may remain tepid in May and weaken in some regions in June due to hot weather.  As for exports, the export volume in Q1 was at a high level, but foreign demand in Q2 may weaken. Anti-dumping measures and uncertainties around BIS certification will possibly significantly affect exports, providing limited support to the market. Regarding costs, both calcium carbide and caustic soda prices are expected to decline in May and June, so the integrated profit is expected to fluctuate slightly, having little impact on the market. SCI predicts that the average self-delivery prices of SG-5 in East China in April 2025, May 2025, and June 2025 will likely be RMB 5,020/mt, RMB 5,000/mt, and RMB 4,970/mt respectively.