Introduction: Since the announcement of mutual tariff increases between China and the U.S., the overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. PVC powder spot prices followed the futures market downward, and PVC producers reduced EXW prices. Coupled with exchange rate fluctuations, producers’ and traders’ FOB offers saw a noticeable decline compared to last week. Export orders at some producers and traders improved, though with certain variations. With India’s anti-dumping review approaching and uncertainty remaining over U.S. tariff policies, short-term PVC powder exports from China may struggle to see a significant increase.

Following the changes in Sino-U.S. tariff policies, the overall commodity market sentiment has weakened compared to earlier periods. The main PVC futures contract declined, hitting a new yearly low on April 9, and spot market prices followed suit. PVC powder producers significantly reduced EXW prices this week, with some also lowering export offers. China’s producers cut offers for calcium carbide-based PVC SG-5 from $617-630/mt FOB last week to $605-616/mt FOB. Export orders for ethylene-based PVC S-1000 dropped from $640-650/mt FOB last week to $630-650/mt FOB.

The price advantage of Chinese PVC powder exports has improved compared to earlier periods. However, due to lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, purchasing enthusiasm among foreign buyers varies by region. Since India and Southeast Asia remain the largest export destinations for Chinese PVC powder, demand from these regions will directly impact overall export orders. This week, the FOB price decreased. Indian buyers, who mainly purchase PVC powder to fill domestic supply gaps, showed higher interest in inquiry. Some producers received more export orders from India. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia (particularly Vietnam), some buyers procure Chinese PVC powder to produce PVC flooring for re-export. Given the uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, these buyers were more cautious, so export orders from Southeast Asia shrank. While export orders varied among producers this week, the overall volume improved slightly compared to last week.

Looking ahead, PVC powder exports may still face significant uncertainty. From India’s perspective, the anti-dumping review on PVC powder imports will commence on April 30. Based on preliminary rulings, the competitive edge of Chinese PVC powder resources will likely weaken. As the review date approaches, some Indian buyers may slow their procurement pace, and whether Chinese suppliers can maintain their price advantage will depend on the final anti-dumping policy. Additionally, India’s BIS certification deadline has been postponed to June 24, 2025 - any further extensions will directly impact Chinese PVC powder exports to India. In Southeast Asia, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs may continue to dampen buying enthusiasm in the short term, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see sentiment.

Overall, the recent improvement in Chinese PVC powder exports may not be sustainable. In H2 April, export orders for producers and traders are expected to remain at or below average levels. Furthermore, the upcoming May shipment quotations from Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics may be an important factor - any unexpected price fluctuations could influence foreign buyers’ interest in Chinese resources.