1. Market Price
2. Market Review
China’s
PVC powder market prices showed a drop-rise-drop trend in January. Up to January
24, the monthly average price of calcium carbide-based SG-5 was RMB 5,071/mt, up
RMB 17/mt or 0.34% MoM.
Expectations
for the inventory increase after the Chinese New Year holiday dented the market
price at the beginning and the end of January. In mid-January, the PVC price
rebounded. First, crude oil prices moved up, boosting the commodity market.
Second, data related to the economy was better than expected, bolstering the
market atmosphere. Third, PVC fundamentals improved slightly due to the
increase in export orders and the decline in inventory.
3. Market
Forecast
SCI reckons that
China’s PVC powder prices will possibly hover at lows in February 2025, with
the price range of RMB 4,950-5,150/mt.
In February,
China’s PVC powder fundamentals may remain soft. Downstream enterprises may
stockpile before the holiday and consume previous feedstock inventory after the
holiday. In March, downstream demand may begin to recover, while the PVC
industrial operating rate will possibly move down due to unit maintenance. In
addition, the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political
Consultative Conference will likely be held, which may boost the market
sentiment. Thus, the market price may rebound in March. In April, due to the
commissioning of new ethylene-based PVC units, the market price may fall. SCI
predicts that the average price of SG-5 in East China in February 2025, March
2025, and April 2025 will likely be RMB 5,050/mt, RMB 5,100/mt, and RMB 5,030/mt
respectively.