PetroChina held a
successful auction on February 27, 2025, at the Chongqing Petroleum & Gas
Exchange for remaining feedgas volumes designated for direct-supplied LNG
plants in western China during March and April, 2025.
1. Delivery period:
1H March,
Transaction Volume: 138
million cubic meters,
Average Price: RMB 2.47/cbm
(or $9.61/MMBtu).
2. Delivery period: April,
Transaction Volume: 90
million cubic meters,
Average Price: RMB 2.41/cbm
(or $9.37/MMBtu).
The estimated LNG
production cost in March is RMB 4,133/mt (or $11.08/MMBtu), representing an increase
of RMB 160/mt compared to Feb feedgas, where the average price was RMB 2.34/cbm
($9.10/MMBtu).
The estimated LNG
production cost in April is RMB 4,075/mt (or $10.93/MMBtu), representing a drop
of RMB 58/mt compared to Mar feedgas.
In 2024, the average
price difference between feedgas and LNG ex-works prices was approximately
$1.9/MMBtu. When domestic LNG ex-works prices exceed the JKM price, it
typically signals potential spot arbitrage opportunities. However, the average
price of feedgas for April is $ 9.36/MMBtu, and the projected LNG ex-works
price for April is about $11.26/MMBtu, quite lower than the spot DES price of April
cargoes, indicating that the arbitrage window for spot LNG imports in April is totally
closed.
