In Q1, 2025, sluggish demand, heightened international tensions and U.S.-China tariff disputes led to a notable decline in China’s LNG import shipments, with no U.S. cargoes since the last delivery on February 6. Looking ahead to Q2, the tariff escalation is expected to have a limited impact on China’s LNG import structure, but seasonal demand weakness may result in more cautious LNG procurement.

China’s LNG imports witnessed steep declines in Q1 amid geopolitical and trade tensions. The persistent tense international situation, coupled with successive escalations in U.S.-China tariff policies, led to a marked reduction in LNG arrivals during Q1, 2025. There were a total of 226 cargoes with 15.55 MMt, down 78 cargoes or 23.87% QOQ, and down 82 cargoes or 23.32% YOY.

Warm winter, ample piped gas supply and high inventory levels at terminals, combined with excessive LNG arrivals before the 2024 heating season left losses to spot importers. This dampened domestic procurement enthusiasm for Q1 cargoes. In addition, high spot LNG prices subdued the buying and triggered the diverting to Europe. Moreover, the tariff escalation since February 10 prompted retaliatory measures globally, including China. Though spot LNG prices shifted down, the import may continue to decline, given the off season and sufficient supply in the domestic market.

China’s LNG imports during Q1, 2025 heavily relied on contracted supply, with long-term agreement partners accounting for 97% of total imports. No U.S. cargoes have been delivered to China since February 6, 2025, due to escalating tariffs. If the tariff issue remains unresolved by 2025, it is expected that U.S. LNG resources will not be imported into the country during the period of the tariff increase.

In Q2, LNG imports are predicted to remain weak. LNG import volume is estimated at 16.40 MMt, down 10.87% YOY. The tariff issue is expected to affect the international market, and LNG imports may be cautious during the off season. As of April 16, the U.S. had announced multiple rounds of reciprocal tariffs on its global trading partners, under such repeated and chaotic tariff disturbances, the market is full of bearish sentiments. With the continuous decline in the spot price, many domestic importers begin to wait and see the timing of spot imports. However, they are cautious given the demand off season. From October, the negative growth YOY is predicted to be reversed mainly due to pre-winter replenishments.