SCI Energy Seminar Singapore 2024, a prestigious gathering of leading industry professionals concluded on September 2, 2024 with resounding success. Held at the Conrad Centennial Singapore, the event brought together more than 150 representatives from 80 companies to discuss the latest dynamics, challenges, and opportunities in the fields of oil refining, natural gas and LPG industries.

SCI Seminar Singapore 2024

Ms. Naomi Yang, Head of SCI International Business Unit, kicked off the seminar with a welcoming address, extending sincere appreciation to the participants for their presence. She states that the global energy landscape has undergone significant transformation, and this is a trend that will continue. China’s economy has maintained steady growth, presenting both unprecedented opportunities and challenges. The increasing demand for cleaner energy sources, fluctuations in international oil prices, stricter environmental regulations, and the rapid rise of the new energy vehicle industry are steering the refining sector toward greater efficiency and sustainability.

Head of SCI International Business Unit Naomi Yang delivered the opening speech

Afterwards, SCI BD Ms. Ayu Liu succinctly introduced SCI along with SCI comprehensive solutions, especially in the oil refining sector. SCI’s robust research framework, standardized procedures for data production and release, etc., effectively guarantee the systematic, meticulous, and standardized release of SCI data. This, in turn, facilitates reliable data-driven evidence for decision-making in the commodity industry.

SCI BD Ms. Ayu Liu introduced SCI and SCI data system

SCI Oil Analyst Vincent Zhou, Kpler Senior Crude Analyst Muyu Xu, SCI LPG Analyst April Song and LNG Analyst Angel Chen presented comprehensive keynote addresses on the topics of oil, LPG and natural gas industries in succession.

SCI analyst Mr. Vincent Zhou delivered keynote speech on oil refining

From Jan-Aug 2024, China’s crude demand growth slowed down, and the refined product consumption also underperformed. Amidst this backdrop, Vincent Zhou illustrates the changes and new features in China’s oil refining sector based on in-depth analysis of crude and refined product supply-demand fundamentals. China’s annual crude throughput may see a modest year-over-year reduction in 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, he anticipates that the normal operation of Yulong Petrochemical, the expansion of Sinopec Zhenhai, the startup of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie’s expansion, etc. will jointly propel a rebound in China’s crude throughput. In the meantime, the crude runs at traditional independent refineries are expected to improve Y-O-Y on anticipated lower international crude oil prices. China’s crude throughput and imports in 2025 are projected to post significant increases from 2024.

Kpler analyst Ms. Muyu Xu delivered keynote speech on crude oil

According to Muyu Xu, Libya has become a crucial factor in determining both the timing and scale of OPEC+ output increases. Supply uncertainties in the Atlantic Basin, ongoing attacks in the Red Sea, and the impending return of OPEC+ barrels will keep the Brent/Dubai spread wide and hinder East-West oil flows. Iranian crude output and exports continue to rise despite tightened U.S. sanctions. Reliance has started purchasing Venezuelan crude, reducing the availability of cargo for China. Asia has become the largest market for Canada’s TMX crude, putting pressure on the prices and flows of competing grades from Latin America and Iraq.

SCI analyst Ms. April Song delivered keynote speech on LPG

April Song conducted a comprehensive analysis of the current application status of light feedstocks in China, coupled with insightful predictions regarding the consumption trends of light ends by 2026. Amidst the cracking profitability landscape and feedstock supply considerations, refineries are increasingly inclined towards flexibly switching their cracking feedstocks. This strategic shift has naturally drawn significant attention to both ethane and LPG as viable options. Consequently, China’s LPG consumption is projected to escalate annually, with ethane and LPG poised to occupy a more prominent share within the overall cracking feedstock mix.

SCI analyst Ms. Angel Chen delivered keynote speech on natural gas

The dynamics of China’s trucked LNG market serve as a pivotal barometer for the broader natural gas sector. Since 2024, the LNG supply landscape has experienced a notable resurgence, with terminal truck loading rising by 40% Y-O-Y in Jan-Jul 2024. This recovery has been further bolstered by a 20% Y-O-Y decline in LNG prices, driven by cost efficiencies. Angel Chen delved into this evolving scenario, providing a comprehensive outlook for the remainder of 2024 and throughout 2025. She anticipates that the domestic LNG consumption will register robust double-digit growth, fueled by the commissioning of inland plants and coastal terminals, the grow of LNG-powered heavy trucks, and the continued decline in LNG prices. Turning to the import market, Angel Chen forecasts a potential speed bump in LNG import volume in Aug-Dec 2024, while the picture may brighten significantly for 2025, underscoring the resilience and potential of China’s LNG market amidst ongoing industry transformations and global energy transitions.

The presentations and subsequent discussions delineated the forecasts and potential opportunities within China’s oil, LPG and natural gas markets, underpinned by an extensive array of data, a thorough analysis of supply-demand fundamentals, key industry developments, and the future trajectory of each sector. As the Seminar drew to a close, attendees left inspired and energized, thinking critically about the future of energy and conveying a strong interest in monitoring the evolvement of China’s energy market.

Sincere and deepest appreciation to all who have contributed to the success of SCI Energy Seminar Singapore 2024. SCI will always adhere to a neutral third-party position, recording, monitoring, and reporting the Chinese commodity market objectively, impartially, and scientifically. SCI establishes, develops, and implements methodologies and compliance requirements following the global standards. With paid information, data, etc. as core values, SCI will continue focusing on customer needs, to research and develop products and services for higher customer satisfaction.