Highlights
In 2019, China’s refined oil prices fluctuated within a large range. From January to April 2019, the refined oil price climbed continuously. Dragged down by the relief of the geopolitical risks, the increase of the U.S. crude inventory and the upgrading threatening of the Sino-U.S. trade war, the international crude price decreased sharply in a short period. China’s gasoline price hit bottom, while China’s diesel price reached a high level. Diesel prices were once higher than gasoline prices. Up to Aug 23, China’s refined oil prices increased ninth, decreased sixth, and kept unchanged twice. The total prices of gasoline and diesel was raised by 125 RMB/mt and 140 RMB/mt respectively. The average wholesale price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 13.96% and 6.52% respectively. The units at refinery that took overhauls in 2019 increased, and the operating rates at state-owned refinery in June fell to 72.74%. However, under the background of the imbalance of supply and demand, the shortage of domestic diesel resources caused a hot debate. In addition, with the large-scale refining and chemical projects such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, the oil market faces both challenges and opportunities, and refining and chemical integration has become an inevitable choice for the sustainable development of the world’s petrochemical industry. Domestic traditional refineries face transformation challenges. As more foreign capital has entered into the Chinese retail market, the competition in refined oil terminals has become increasingly fierce, and gas station in some areas has offered discounts exceeding RMB 2.5/liter.
In 2020, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady growth, but in the face of economic restructuring, diesel demand continues to decline within a narrow range slightly. As of June 2019, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.44 million, with a growth rate of 31.87%. The number of new energy vehicles will continue to rise, and the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles is obvious. With the improvement of supporting facilities, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow rapidly in 2020, and China’s gasoline demand growth will remain low. Due to oversupply in the refined oil market, the continuous increase of refined oil exports has become an indisputable fact. With the rise of integrated private refineries, private refineries intend to obtain export authorization, and Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical may obtain the permit to export refined oil. The promotion of ethanol gasoline is an energy strategy for sustainable development in China. However, the full implementation of ethanol gasoline in 2020 still requires policy support and guidance. With the continued construction of integration in 2020, what changes will occur in the supply and demand pattern of China’s refined oil market? Due to the long-term and irreversible impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war, the overall crude oil market in 2020 will be relatively bearish, and how can Chinese refineries maintain profitability? What kind of business opportunities are there in the refined oil market in an increasingly competitive market environment? How can oil companies cope with the impact of new energy on the refined oil market?
This report relies on SCI’s strong refined oil analyst’ team and comprehensive data accumulation to quantitatively analyze and interpret products and industries. Moreover, this report analyzes China’s refined oil market from various perspectives such as raw materials, industry scale, supply and demand and terminals. SCI presents the current status of domestic refined oil-related products and a comprehensive analysis for customers by using alternative energy and traditional energy data comparison. In addition, SCI provides a basis and data reference for industry investors to make decisions through model prediction.
Report Value:
1. Comprehensive supply and demand data of China’s refined oil market
2. In-depth interpretation of the current situation of China’s refining industry
3. Interpretation of China’s refined oil market price
4. Summary and analysis of highlights
Contents
Part 1 2019 China Refined Oil Market Overview
Part 2 2015-2019 China Refined Oil Supply and Demand Analysis
Part 3 2015-2019 China Refined Oil Supply Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
3.1 China Refineries Capacity Analysis
3.1.1 2019 China's State-Owned Refineries Capacity Statistics
3.1.2 2019 China Independent Refineries Capacity Statistics
3.2 China refineries operating rate and output analysis
3.2.1 2015-2019 China Refineries Operating Rates Comparative Analysis
3.2.2 2015-2019 China Refined Oil Output Comparative Analysis
3.3 China Refined Oil Import Data Statistics and Analysis
3.4 China Refined Oil Inventory Analysis
3.4.1 2015-2019 Diesel Social Inventory Analysis
3.4.2 2015-2019 Shandong Independent Refineries Inventory Analysis
3.4.3 2015-2019 Singapore Refined Oil Inventory Status Analysis
3.5 2020 China Refined Oil Supply Pattern Forecast
3.5.1 2020 China Proposed Refineries Statistics
3.5.2 2020-2024 China Refined Oil Output Data Forecast
3.5.3 2020-2024 China Refined Oil Import Data Forecast
Part 4 2019 China Refined Oil Demand Pattern and Trend Analysis
4.1 2015-2019 Refined Oil Demand Structure Analysis
4.1.1 2015-2019 Refined Oil Demand Comparative Analysis
4.1.2 2015-2019 Refined Oil Downstream Consumption Structure Comparative Analysis by Industry
4.1.3 2015-2019 Refined Oil Downstream Consumption Structure Comparative Analysis by Region
4.2 China Refined Oil Export Data Statistics and Analysis
4.2.1 2015-2019 Refined Oil Export Volume Statistics and Analysis
4.2.2 2019 Refined Oil Export Data Statistics and Analysis by Category
4.3 2019 Refined Oil Ethanol Consumption Peak and Off Seasons Analysis
4.4 Downstream Procurement Key Influencing Factor
4.5 Enterprise and Trader Operation Risk and Barrier Analysis
4.6 2020-2024 China Refined Oil Demand Forecast
4.6.1 2020-2024 Refined Oil Demand and Downstream Consumption Structure Forecast
4.6.2 2020-2024 Refined Oil Export Volume Forecast
Part 5 Refined Oil Product Price Trend Analysis
5.1 China Refined Oil Wholesale Price and Market Review
5.1.1 2015-2019 State-Owned Refineries Products Wholesale Price and Market Analysis
5.1.2 2015-2019 Shandong Independent Refineries Refined Oil Prices and Market Analysis
5.1.3 2015-2019 Shaanxi Independent Refineries Refined Oil Prices and Market Analysis
5.1.4 2015-2019 Aviation Kerosene Price and Market Analysis
5.2 2019 Refined Oil Products Retail Sales Analysis
5.2.1 2019 China Gas Stations Development Status Analysis
5.2.2 2015-2019 China refined oil products retail profit Analysis
5.3 Related Products Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.3.1 2015-2019 Crude Oil Price and Co-Movement Analysis
5.3.2 2015-2019 Blended Oil Price and Co-Movement Analysis
Part 6 2020 China Refined Oil Industry Forecast
6.1 2020 China Refined Oil Price Trend Forecast
6.2 Influence of Macro economy on China Refined Oil Price Trends
6.3 Influence of National Policies on Refined Oil Products Price Trend
6.4 China Refined Oil Supply and Demand Pattern Forecast
6.5 China Refined Oil Competition Situation Analysis and Forecast
6.6 Value Chain Analysis and Forecast
6.6.1 China Refineries’ Profit Analysis
6.6.2 China Gasoline and Diesel Wholesale and Retail Profit Analysis
6.7 Related Product Price Co-Movement Influence Forecast
6.7.1 Crude Oil Price and Co-Movement Influence Forecast
6.7.2 Blended Oil Price and Co-Movement Influence Forecast
6.8 2020 Influential Strength of Main Price Drivers on Refined Oil Price
Appendix 1 Refined Oil Industry Focus
Appendix 2 Ethanol Industry Annual Events
Appendix 3 Methodology and Related Definition
Appendix 4 Tables and Charts
Appendix 5 Related Product Annual Report
2019-2020 Global Crude Oil Market Annual Report
Legal Statement