Highlights
In 2023, affected by multiple factors such as the slower-than-expected demand recovery, stable supply release, and high cost, wood pulp import offer and spot price in China both fluctuated downwards. According to SCI, as of August, the import offers for SWP and HWP decreased by $270/mt and $280/mt or 28.72% and 34.15% respectively compared to December 2022. SWP and HWP monthly average spot prices fluctuated by RMB -1,837.14/mt and RMB -1,891.79/mt or -24.96% and -29.05% respectively. The price adjustment of the downstream paper prices ranged between RMB -324.44/mt and RMB -1,543.47/mt, with amplitudes of -5.78% to -19.80%. Market players expected profitability recovery in the paper industry with the decrease in pulp prices. However, due to the downtrend in paper markets as well as slow demand recovery, the profit recovery may be relatively weak in the future. How will the paper industry endure this difficult period and what changes will occur in industry profitability?
From January to July 2023, China's wood pulp import volume increased by 16.75% Y-O-Y, with over 15% hikes in both SWP and HWP imports. In the meantime, the cumulative production of sample pulp mills in China only edged down by 0.68% Y-O-Y, and the output loss from unexpected downtimes was fully compensated by import hikes. Therefore, the pulp market supply was stable, but the demand recovery was slower than expected, putting pressure on pulp prices.
In the future, with the self-healing of market factors and the release of favorable policy stimulus, the Chinese economy is expected to continue to marginally improve, thereby boosting consumption and wood pulp market performance. In 2023, the integrated pulp and paper capacity expansion continue in China. According to SCI, the planned and under-construction pulp and paper capacity totals over 10 million tons/a, and the industry capacity concentrates towards top players. It is estimated that China’s high wood pulp import dependency may decrease in the future.
From a global perspective, in 2023 and after, the total planned and under-construction pulp and paper capacity will exceed 40 million tons/a. China will contribute to over half of the new capacity expansion with mostly integrated pulp and paper projects. How will the competition pattern of China’s paper industry evolve? How will the issues related to wood chips be resolved? How will the global supply and demand pattern change in the industry chain? How will the profits of the entire paper industry evolve? When will the opportunities and turning points in the Chinese market appear? The SCI Pulp Market Annual Report examines changes in industry patterns and predicts industry trends through detailed and comprehensive data analysis.
SCI has been closely monitoring the pulp industry information and witnessing the development of the industry since it was founded. The 2023-2024 China Pulp Market Annual Report meets the market demand and analyzes the reasons behind the changes in supply and demand through important data changes. Aside from focusing on the market supply and demand, feedstock import changes and the exclusive wood pulp shipments from major exports to China, SCI’s reports also monitor the key pulp inventory status in high frequency and analyze downstream pulp consumption structure to better demonstrate the current status and future trends of the pulp and downstream industries.
Report value
1. To provide a comprehensive understanding of the changes in the pulp market by analyzing the pulp market demand and supply factors both in China and overseas.
2. To analyze changes in downstream market consumption patterns and pulp demand.
3. To review the pulp price trend within the year and decipher its key drivers.
4. To provide forecasts for the pulp market from 2024 to 2026 based on factors regarding market fundamental changes and macro-environment.
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2022-2023 China Duplex Board and Ivory Board Market Annual Report
Contents
Part 1 Pulp Market Overview
1.1 Pulp Product Introduction
1.2 Industrial Chian Relationships
Part 2 2019-2023 China Pulp Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
2.1 2019-2023 Pulp Supply and Demand Balance Trend Analysis
2.2 2023 China Pulp Supply and Demand Balance Characteristics and Influence on Price
Part 3 Pulp Supply Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
3.1 2022 Global Pulp Output Analysis
3.1.1 Global Pulp Output
3.1.2 Wood Pulp Shipments from Major Exporters to China
3.1.3 Wood Pulp Output and Sales of Major Listed Pulp Producers Overseas
3.1.4 2024-2028 Overseas Newly Added Pulp Capacity
3.2 2019-2023 China Pulp Capacity Change Analysis
3.2.1 China Pulp Capacity Development Analysis
3.2.1.1 Pulp Capacity Development Trend Analysis
3.2.1.2 Pulp Capacity Concentration Ratio Analysis
3.2.2 China Pulp Capacity by Region
3.2.3 2024-2028 China Newly Added Pulp Capacity
3.3 2019-2023 China Pulp Output Change Analysis
3.3.1 2019-2023 China Pulp Output
3.3.1.1 China Wood Pulp Annual Output Trend and Operating Rate Analysis
3.3.1.2 China Non-Wood Pulp Annual Output Trend and Operating Rate Analysis
3.3.2 2023 China Pulp Production Characteristics and Reason Analysis
3.3.2.1 Wood Pulp Monthly Output Characteristics and Influence Analysis
3.3.2.2 Non-Wood Pulp Monthly Output Characteristics and Influence Analysis
3.4 2019-2023 China Pulp Import Market Analysis
3.4.1 2019-2023 China Pulp Import Data Analysis
3.4.1.1 China Pulp Import Volume Analysis
3.4.1.2 China Wood Pulp Import Structure – by Trade Partner
3.4.1.3 China Wood Pulp Import Structure – by Registration Place and Trade Mode
3.4.2 2023 China Import Volume Change Analysis
3.4.2.1 Monthly Import Volume and Characteristic Analysis
3.4.2.2 2023 Influence of Pulp Import Volume on China’s Total Supply
3.5 2023 Pulp Inventory Change Analysis
3.5.1 Total Pulp Inventory Change Trend Analysis at China’s Main Ports
3.5.2 Inventory and Price Change Analysis
3.6 2024 China Pulp Market Supply Forecast
3.6.1 2024-2024 Annual Supply Volume Forecast
3.6.2 2024 Monthly Supply Forecast and Price Influence Forecast
Part 4 Pulp Demand Pattern and Change Analysis
4.1 Global Pulp Consumption Volume Change Analysis
4.2 2019-2023 China Pulp Consumption Change Analysis
4.2.1 China Pulp Annual Consumption and Change Trend
4.2.2 China Main Downstream Industry Consumption Change and Characteristic Analysis
4.2.3 China Pulp Downstream Consumption Structure Analysis by Industry and Region
4.2.4 China Pulp Downstream Customer Size and Demand Change Analysis
4.3 2019-2023 China Pulp Export Market Analysis
4.3.1 2019-2023 China Wood Pulp Export Data Analysis
4.3.1.1 China Wood Pulp Export Volume Trend Analysis
4.3.1.2 2023 China Wood Pulp Export Structure – by Trade Partner
4.3.1.3 2023 China Wood Pulp Export Structure – by Registration Place and Trade Mode
4.3.2 2023 China Export Volume Change Analysis
4.3.2.1 Monthly Export Volume and Characteristic Analysis
4.3.2.2 2023 Influence Analysis of Exports on China’s Total Demand
4.4 2024-2028 Pulp Downstream Industry Demand Growth Forecast
4.5 2024-2028 Pulp Consumption Forecast
4.5.1 China Consumption Volume Change Trend Analysis
4.5.2 Export Volume Change Trend Analysis
4.6 Pulp Demand Seasonality Analysis
4.6.1 Pulp Demand Seasonality Characteristic Analysis
4.6.2 Pulp Demand Seasonality from a Price Perspective
4.7 Pulp Downstream User Procurement Key Influencing Factor Analysis
4.8 Operating Risks and Barriers Analysis
Part 5 Pulp Price Trend Analysis
5.1 International Pulp Price Trend Analysis
5.1.1 China Wood Pulp USD Import Price Trend Analysis
5.2 China Pulp Market Price Analysis
5.2.1 Pulp Price Change Characteristic Analysis
5.2.1.1 Wood Pulp Price Trend Characteristic Analysis
5.2.1.2 Non-Wood Pulp Price Trend Characteristic Analysis
5.2.2 2023 Wood Pulp Price Seasonal Characteristic Analysis
5.2.3 2023 Non-Wood Pulp Price Seasonal Characteristic Analysis
5.3 Pulp Futures Market Trend and Influence on the Spot Market
5.3.1 Futures and Spot Price Trend Comparison
5.3.2 Major Futures Contract and Spot Price Trend Comparison
5.4 Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.4.1 Pulp and Major Downstream Paper Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.5 China Imported Wood Pulp Cost and Profit Analysis
Part 6 Pulp Industry Trend Forecast
6.1 2024-2026 Pulp Price Trend Forecast
6.2 Pulp Price Driver Development Forecast
6.2.1 Influence Analysis of Macro-Environment Factors
6.2.2 Influence Analysis of National and Industry Policy
6.2.3 2024-2028 Supply and Demand Balance Forecast
6.2.3.1 2024-2028 Pulp Supply-Demand Balance Characteristic Forecast
6.2.3.2 2024 Supply-Deman Balance Forecast
6.2.4 Pulp Market Competition Pattern Analysis
6.2.5 Value Chain Analysis and Forecast
6.2.6 Related Product Price Co-Movement Forecast
6.3 2024 Major Price Drivers Influence Extent Analysis
Appendix 1 Pulp Market Annual Events
Appendix 2 Methodology and Definition
Appendix 3 Tables, Charts and Companies
Legal Statement