Highlights
H1, 2023 witnessed a downtrend in China’s methanol market on the whole. First, both methanol supply and demand decreased, but the quicker demand slide intensified the supply-demand mismatch. Second, feedstock coal prices dropped, undermining the cost support for methanol prices. Third, the overall methanol market sentiment was bearish, affected by the banking crisis in Europe and the U.S. Against such a background, China’s methanol market kept fluctuating downwards, with the mainstream prices of RMB 2,180-2,860/mt in Jiangsu.
On the supply side, 7 newly added methanol units with a total capacity of 4,550kt/a came on stream in H1, 2023, but their production time was relatively short due to the long-time debugging of some units and other accidental factors. Moreover, the operating rates at existing producers were generally low influenced by falling methanol prices. From January to June, China’s methanol output totaled 37.62 million tons, down 1.90% Y-O-Y. Meanwhile, China’s methanol import volume increased notably on the back of the stable supply from the Middle East and South America as well as more cargoes from Europe. In the first six months, China’s methanol output aggregated 6.7 million tons, up 10.32% Y-O-Y. On the demand side, China’s economic recovery in the post-pandemic period failed to boost market demand as much as expected. Methanol downstream users mostly purchased on a need-to basis, and the methanol consumption volume in sample downstream industries was 34.04 million tons in H1, 2023, down 3.13% Y-O-Y.
In H2, 2023, China’s methanol prices began to rebound with cost stabilizing and demand recovering. However, the market is still confronted with multiple challenges. Under the downward pressure on industrial chain profits, market players keep an eye on the stability of downstream demand improvement and the influence of the macro-environment on the methanol market. In 2024, what changes will international methanol consumption experience? Whether there are new demand growth points? How will high methanol prices influence the competitiveness of the olefin industrial chain, the operation of existing olefin producers and the startup of newly added units? Face various challenges, whether methanol producers can take steps to enhance their competitive edges? What are the future adjustments in the regional methanol industrial structure?
Based on comprehensive and abundant historical data as well as an in-depth analysis of the whole industrial chain, SCI methanol annual report provides an elaborate review and summary of the methanol market in the past five years. What’s more important, it maps out how China’s methanol market will evolve in the next five years so as to strongly assist customers in judging the market and grasp opportunities.
Report Value
1.New patterns of global methanol trade flow
2.Changes and highlights in methanol downstream fields
3.Methanol enterprise operation trend analysis
4.Changes in value re-distribution of methanol industrial chain
Contents
Part 1 Methanol Market Overview
Part 2 2019-2023 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance
2.1 2019-2023 Supply-Demand Balance Trend
2.2 2023 Supply-Demand Balance Feature and Price Relation
Part 3 Methanol Supply Pattern and Variation Trend
3.1 2023 Global Methanol Capacity
3.1.1 Global Methanol Capacity Layout
3.1.2 2023 Global Methanol Trade Flow
3.2 2019-2023 China Methanol Capacity Variation
3.2.1 China Methanol Capacity Trend
3.2.1.1 Methanol Capacity Trend and Concentration Degree
3.2.1.2 Methanol Capacity Structure by Production Technology
3.2.2 China Methanol Capacity Layout
3.2.3 2023 China Methanol Trade Flow
3.2.3.1 China Major Methanol Sales Areas and Methanol Demand
3.2.3.2 China Major Methanol Producing Areas and Methanol Output
3.2.3.3 China Methanol Trade Flow Feature and Influence
3.2.4 2024-2028 China Newly Added Methanol Capacity
3.2.4.1 2024-2028 China Methanol Capacity Forecast
3.2.4.2 2024 China Newly Added Methanol Capacity List
3.3 2019-2023 China Methanol Output Variation
3.3.1 2019-2023 China Methanol Output
3.3.1.1 China Yearly Methanol Output Variation Trend and Operating Rate
3.3.1.2 China Regional Methanol Output Variation
3.3.2 2023 China Monthly Methanol Output Variation Feature and Influence
3.4 2019-2023 China Methanol Import Market
3.4.1 2019-2023 China Methanol Import Data
3.4.1.1 China Methanol Import Volume Trend
3.4.1.2 China Methanol Import Structure by Trade Partner
3.4.1.3 China Methanol Import Structure by Customs and Trade Mode
3.4.2 2023 China Methanol Import Volume Variation
3.4.2.1 Monthly Import Volume and Feature
3.4.2.2 2023 Import Influence on China’s Total Supply
3.5 2023 Methanol Inventory Variation
3.5.1 Methanol Total Inventory Variation and Trend
3.5.1.1 Methanol Inventory at Sample Producers
3.5.1.2 Methanol Inventory at Ports
3.5.2 Inventory Variation and Price Relation Feature
3.5.2.1 Relation Between Inventory Variation and Supply-Demand
3.5.2.2 Relation Between Inventory Variation and Price
3.6 Methanol Storage and Logistics
3.6.1 Methanol Storage and Logistics Condition
3.6.2 Storage and Logistics Cost Analysis and Influence on Price
3.7 2024 China Methanol Supply Forecast
3.7.1 2024-2028 Total Supply Forecast
3.7.2 2024 Monthly Supply Forecast and Influence on Price
Part 4 Methanol Demand Pattern and Variation Trend
4.1 2019-2023 International Methanol Consumption Volume Variation Trend
4.1.1 2019-2023 Global Major Methanol Consumption Countries and Consumption Variation
4.1.2 2023 Methanol Consumption Variation New Feature and Influence
4.2 2019-2023 China Methanol Consumption Volume Variation Trend
4.2.1 China Yearly Methanol Consumption Volume and Variation Trend
4.2.2 China Major Methanol Downstream Industry Demand Variation and Feature
4.2.3 China Methanol Downstream Industry Distribution and Regional Consumption Structure
4.2.4 China Methanol Downstream Industry Customer Size and Demand Variation
4.2.5 China Methanol Downstream Industry Customer Size in Key Areas
4.3 2019-2023 China Methanol Export Market
4.3.1 2019-2023 China Methanol Export Data
4.3.1.1 China Methanol Export Volume Trend
4.3.1.2 China Methanol Export Structure by Trade Partner
4.3.1.3 China Methanol Export Structure by Customs and Trade Mode
4.3.2 2023 China Methanol Export Volume Variation
4.3.2.1 Monthly Export Volume and Feature
4.3.2.2 2023 Export Influence on China’s Total Demand
4.4 2024-2028 China Methanol Downstream Demand Growth Forecast
4.4.1 CTO/MTO Industry Market Scale and Demand Forecast
4.4.2 Traditional Downstream Industries Market Scale and Demand Forecast
4.5 2024-2028 Methanol Consumption Volume Forecast
4.5.1 China Methanol Consumption Variation Trend
4.5.2 Methanol Export Volume Variation Trend
4.6 Methanol Consumption Peak and Off Seasons
4.7 Key Downstream Purchasing Factors
4.8 Methanol Operation Risks and Barriers
Part 5 Methanol Price Trend
5.1 International Methanol Price Trend
5.1.1 Methanol Price Trend and Feature in Major Regions
5.1.2 China and Overseas Methanol Price Spread Feature and Influence
5.2 China Methanol Price Trend
5.2.1 Price Variation Feature
5.2.1.1 General Price Trend Feature
5.2.1.2 Price Feature in Major Regions
5.2.2 2023 Price Trend Seasonality Feature
5.3 Futures Price Trend Influence on Spot Market
5.4 Related Product Price Co-Movement
5.4.1 Methanol and Major Feedstock Price Correlation
5.4.2 Methanol and Major Downstream Price Correlation
5.4.3 Methanol and Related Product Price Correlation
5.5 Methanol Production Cost and Profit
5.5.1 Methanol Cost Structure and Feature
5.5.1.1 Methanol Cost Structure and Variation
5.5.1.2 Methanol Cost Comparative Analysis by Production Technology
5.5.2 Methanol Profit Variation and Influence
5.5.2.1 Methanol Profit Trend and Feature
5.5.2.2 Profit Variation Influence on Methanol Production
Part 6 Methanol Industry Development Outlook
6.1 2024-2026 Methanol Price Trend Forecast
6.2 Methanol Market Driver Development Forecast
6.2.1 Macro-Economy Influence on Methanol Market
6.2.2 Industrial Policy Influence on Methanol Market
6.2.3 2024-2028 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
6.2.3.1 2024-2028 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Trend and Feature Forecast
6.2.3.2 2024 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
6.2.4 Methanol Market Competition Pattern Analysis
6.2.4.1 2024-2028 Global Methanol Trade Flow Forecast
6.2.4.2 2024-2028 China Methanol Trade Flow Forecast
6.2.4.3 Methanol Enterprise Operation Trend
6.2.5 Value Chain Analysis and Forecast
6.2.6 Related Product Price Co-Movement Forecast
6.3 2024 Major Price Driver Influence Extent
Appendixes:
Appendix 1 Methanol Industry Hotspots
Appendix 2 Methanol Market Annual Events
Appendix 3 Methodology and Related Definition
Appendix 4 China Methanol Capacity List
Appendix 5 Tables, Charts and Enterprise Names
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