Highlights
With the stage of high profit ends, the pace of price drop in the swine market in 2021 exceeds market expectations. In 2022, the constant and severe loss has harmed the enthusiasm of swine farmers, and the capacity expansion continues to decelerate. Even so, the situation of excessive swine supply does not reverse until April 2022. After April, supported by state-led pork restocking and allocation, the market sentiment turns bullish. Swine farmers become reluctant to sell at lows, which creates critical bottom-line support for the swine market, and the swine price quickly climbs to an annual high of RMB 23.80/kg. However, affected by policy adjustments and demand constraints, the swine price has cooled down to some extent during H2 of the year. As of August 25, the SCI national average price of lean-type swine is RMB 22.32/kg, up 42.53% from that on January 4.
In 2022, the swine capacity in China has surpassed the level before the African Swine Fever epidemic, but the swine price shows an abnormal uptrend against the traditional seasonality despite the relatively saturated swine market supply. What are the reasons behind it? Is the swine capacity diminishing in actual terms or it is caused by sentiment factors within the industry? What bottom-line support will policy adjustments provide to the market? Under the influence of the COVID pandemic, what dilemma will slaughtering enterprises face? In view of constantly rising costs, what fundamental pattern changes are expected in the swine breeding industry? What pattern changes will take place in different regions? There have been various opinions in the swine market against the background of COVID normalization, policy adjustments and market sentiment reactions, etc. SCI will help you analyze the market from all perspectives and comb the swine market trend.
SCI's analyst team of the swine industry chain has rich experience in the whole industrial chain of swine and related substitute industries, with first-hand data coving the past 5 years. Based on the solid and reliable research data from SCI, together with the data released by authorities such as the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the General Administration of Customs, this report analyzes and interprets the overall status and development of the swine industry chain in 2022. Moreover, through a variety of mathematical models and calculation methods, this report makes a comprehensive and rational forecast of the supply and demand changes, price trends, and import and export trends of the swine breeding industry in 2023.
Report value
1. Analysis China’s swine capacity change by reviewing reproductive sow inventory, swine offtake and offtake plans of large-sized farms in the past 3-5 years.
2. Comprehensively demonstrate downstream demand situation by analyzing operating rates, inventory and profitability of slaughtering enterprises.
3. Judge the swine market supply-demand pattern changes by reviewing the overall arrangements, competition modes and integration trends of leading swine farming and slaughtering enterprises.
4. Probe the possibility of oligopoly in the industry by analyzing production adjustments of listed enterprises and key swine farming enterprises.
5. Forecast the swine price trend in 2023 based on the supply and demand of the swine market in 2022.
Contents
Part 1 Swine Industry Overview
Part 2 2018-2022 Swine Industry Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
Part 3 Swine Industry Supply Pattern Analysis
3.1 China Swine Supply Change Overview in Global Market
3.2 2018-2022 China Breeding Swine Import Volume and Change Trend Analysis
3.3 2018-2022 China Reproductive Sow Inventory Analysis
3.4 2018-2022 China Swine Inventory and Inventory Structure Analysis
3.5 2018-2022 China Swine Offtake Analysis
3.5.1 2018-2022 SCI Swine Offtake Sample Monitoring and Analysis
3.5.2 2018-2022 Development Status of Top 10 Breeding Enterprises
3.5.3 2022 Swine Offtake Plan and Accomplishment Rate Analysis
3.6 2018-2022 China Swine Trading Liveweight Analysis
3.7 2018-2022 China Swine Breeding Region Analysis
3.8 2018-2022 China Swine Transportation Change Analysis
Part 4 Swine Market Demand Change Analysis
4.1 2018-2022 China Pork Output and Change Analysis
4.2 2018-2022 China Slaughter Enterprises’ Slaughter Volume and Operating Rate
4.3 2018-2022 China Frozen Pork Inventory and Fresh Sales Rate Analysis
4.4 2018-2022 Downstream Slaughter Enterprises’ Consumption Scale and Demand Change Analysis
4.5 2018-2022 Downstream Slaughter Enterprises’ Operating Model Analysis
4.6 2022 Development Status of Top 10 Breeding Enterprises
Part 5 Swine Industry Upstream and Downstream Price Trend Analysis
5.1 2018-2022 Upstream Breeding Piglet Price Analysis
5.2 2018-2022 Swine Futures and Spot Price Analysis
5.3 2018-2022 Swine Breeding Cost Analysis
5.3.1 2018-2022 Swine Breeding Feed Cost Analysis
5.3.2 2018-2022 Swine Cost Analysis by Body Weight
5.4 2018-2022 Swine Breeding Profit Analysis
5.4.1 2018-2022 Profit Analysis of Swine Breeding
5.4.2 2018-2022 Profit Analysis of Piglet Fattening
5.5 2018-2022 Substitute Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
Part 6 Swine Market Forecast
6.1 2023 Macro Environment Trend Forecast
6.1.1 Macro Environment Impact on the Swine Market
6.1.2 Industry Policy Impact on the Swine Market
6.1.3 Swine Industry Competition Forecast
6.2 2023 Swine Breeding Profit Forecast
6.3 2023 Swine Supply Pattern Forecast
6.3.1 China Reproductive Sow Inventory Forecast
6.3.2 China Swine Inventory and Offtake Forecast
6.3.3 China Swine Trading Weight Forecast
6.3.4 Swine Supply Forecast by Region
6.4 2023 Demand Pattern Forecast
6.4.1 China Pork Output Forecast
6.4.2 Seasonality and Holiday Impact Trend Forecast
6.4.3 Slaughter Enterprise Operating Rate Change Forecast
6.5 2023-2027 Swine Supply and Demand Balance Forecast
6.6 2023 Swine, Piglet and Replacement Gilt Price Forecast
6.6.1 Replacement Gilt Price Forecast
6.6.2 Piglet Price Forecast
6.6.3 Swine Price Forecast
Appendix
Appendix 1 Methodology and Definitions
Appendix 2 Top 20 Breeding Enterprises
Appendix 3 Charts and Tables
Legal Statement