Highlights
In 2022, imported inflation continues to distort the commodity market in China. Affected by the financial attribute of the product, supply uncertainties and unexpected incidents, the imported wood pulp spot market in China enters a plateau after surging. According to SCI, as of August 2022, SWP and HWP import offers have increased by $240-260/mt or 31.17%-43.33% Y-O-Y. Imported SWP and HWP average monthly spot market prices rise by RMB 1,102-1,527/mt or 17.86%-29.51% Y-O-Y. In contrast, downstream paper market prices change by RMB -15-998/mt or -0.28%-15.36% Y-O-Y. The high-hovering pulp prices aggravate the cost pressure on paper industries, and how will the dilemma of the paper industry in China be resolved?
From January to July of 2022, China’s wood pulp import volume drops by 9.06% Y-O-Y, and the decline lasts for 5 consecutive months. On the other hand, the wood pulp output of domestic sample pulp mills in China is 9,057.3kt during the first 8 months of 2022, up 14.66% Y-O-Y. But the ramp-up in domestic production can hardly fill the gap left by the import decline, and the pulp market is still dominated by the supply factor. Therefore, despite continuous sloppy demand, the high wood pulp price hardly decreases. In 2022, the pulp market in China has entered a stage of capacity expansion, and the industry concentration ratio may rise and the competition between market leaders may intensify under constant capital-intensive capacity investment. According to SCI, in 2022, the newly added pulp capacity in China and overseas countries adds up to nearly 9,000kt/a, and the pulp-paper integration process also accelerates, contributing to the supply and demand rebalance in the pulp market. It is estimated that China’s wood pulp import dependence degree may continue to drop in the future, and the discourse and pricing power for pulp may to some extent tilt towards players in China.
From the global perspective, the planned and under construction pulp capacity in 2022 and after is over 50,000kt/a, and that in China accounts for 62% of the world’s total, followed by Brazil (16%) and Finland (5%). Therein, new HWP, CMP and semi-chemical pulp capacity accounts for the majority. It is estimated that the supply pressure from South America and Europe may persist, while the cost pressure on China may be counterbalanced by more integrated new capacity. With the continuous improvement in the global supply-demand pattern, how will the competition between pulp and paper giants in China evolve, and how will China’s wood chip import volume, wood pulp import origins and the economy of Chinese-made pulp change in the future? When will the turning points of imported wood pulp price and USD import offer arrive? How will the market demand evolve, and what are the opportunities in the Chinese market? The SCI Pulp Market Annual Report will comb industry pattern changes and predict industry development trends through comprehensive and in-depth data analysis.
SCI has been closely monitoring the pulp industry information and witnessing the development of the industry since it was founded. The 2022-2023 China Pulp Market Annual Report meets the market demand and analyzes the reasons behind the changes in supply and demand through important data changes. Focusing on the market supply and demand, SCI monitors and analyzes the production and sales of major overseas pulp producers and offers detailed pulp export data to China. Also, SCI researches pulp inventories in major domestic regions and analyzes the unit operating rates at pulp producers in China and the consumption structure of downstream industries to systematically demonstrate the current status and future trends of the pulp and downstream industries.
Report value
1. To provide a comprehensive understanding of the changes in the pulp market through analyzing the pulp market demand and supply factors both in China and overseas.
2. To analyze changes in downstream market consumption patterns and pulp demand.
3. To review the pulp price trend in 2022 and decipher its key drivers.
4. To provide forecasts for the pulp market from 2023 to 2025 based on factors such as market fundamental changes and macro-environment.
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Contents
Part 1 Pulp Market Overview
Part 2 2018-2022 China Pulp Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
Part 3 Pulp Supply Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
3.1 2022 Global Pulp Market Analysis
3.1.1 Global Pulp Output and Apparent Consumption Volume
3.1.2 Wood Pulp Shipment Volume from Major Exporters to China
3.1.3 Wood Pulp Output and Sales of Major Listed Pulp Producers
3.2 2018-2022 China Pulp Market Analysis
3.2.1 China Pulp Output Analysis
3.2.2 2018-2022 Pulp Import Volume Change and Analysis
3.2.3 Pulp Import Structure Analysis
3.2.4 Impact of Pulp Import Volume Change on Chinese Market
3.2.5 2018-2022 Pulp Inventory at China Main Ports
3.3 2023 Pulp Supply Forecast
3.3.1 2023-2027 Proposed and Under-Construction Pulp Projects
3.3.2 2023 Pulp Capacity Forecast
Part 4 Pulp Demand Pattern and Change Analysis
4.1 2018-2022 Global Pulp Consumption Volume Change Analysis
4.2 China Pulp Consumption Pattern by Industry
4.3 2018-2022 China Pulp Export Market Analysis
4.4 China Pulp Downstream Customer Size and Demand Change Analysis
4.5 China Customer Scale in Key Areas of Major Downstream Consumption Industries
4.6 2023-2027 China Downstream Industry Consumption Growth Forecast
4.7 2023-2027 Pulp Consumption Volume Forecast
4.8 Pulp Consumption Off and Peak Seasons Analysis
4.9 Pulp Downstream User Procurement Key Influencing Factor Analysis
4.10 Operating Risks and Barriers Analysis
Part 5 Pulp Price Trend Analysis
5.1 Imported Wood Pulp Price Analysis
5.1.1 China Wood Pulp USD Import Price Trend Analysis
5.1.2 China Imported Wood Pulp Spot Price Trend Analysis
5.2 Chinese-Made Pulp Price Trend Analysis
5.2.1 Chinese-Made Wood Pulp Price Trend Analysis
5.2.2 Chinese-Made Non-Wood Pulp Price Trend Analysis
5.3 Pulp Futures Market Trend and Influence on the Spot Market
5.4 Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
Part 6 Pulp Industry Trend Forecast
6.1 2023-2025 Pulp Price Trend Forecast
6.1.1 2023-2025 Imported Wood Pulp Spot Price Forecast
6.1.2 2023-2025 Chinese-Made Non-Wood Pulp Price Forecast
6.2 Pulp Price Drivers Development Forecast
6.2.1 Macro-Environment Factors
6.2.2 National and Industry Policy
6.2.3 2023-2027 Supply and Demand Balance Forecast
6.2.4 Competition Pattern Analysis
6.2.5 Value Chain Analysis and Forecast
6.2.6 Related Product Price Co-Movement Forecast
6.3 2023 Major Price Drivers Influence Extent Analysis
Appendix 1 Pulp Market Hot Topics
Appendix 2 Pulp Market Annual Events
Appendix 3 Methodology and Definition
Appendix 4 Tables, Charts and Companies
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