Highlights
In H1, 2024, China’s methanol market prices rose first and then dropped. In Q1, the prices mainly fluctuated within a narrow range amid weak supply and demand. Afterwards, the unexpected decline in the import volume and downstream demand recovery led to constant destocking at ports, supporting methanol prices to go up and hit a yearly high in late May. However, high methanol prices resulted in negative downstream feedback which dragged down the methanol prices again after May. Overall, the methanol price fluctuated in the range of RMB 2,405-3,100/mt in Jiangsu in H1, 2024.
On the supply side, the newly added methanol capacity totaled 800kt/a in H1, 2024, and the methanol output increased on grounds of cost reductions and demand improvement. From January to June, the domestic output aggregated 41,641.8kt, up 10.71% Y-O-Y. However, the import volume dropped by 5.95% Y-O-Y to 6,302.5kt due to the intensive maintenance of overseas units and logistics issues. On the demand side, rising crude oil prices boosted downstream demand on the whole, and the startup of some newly added downstream units also fueled the methanol demand growth. In H1, 2024, the methanol consumption volume from sample downstream industries amounted to 38,313.3kt, up 12.55% Y-O-Y.
In H2, 2024, China’s domestic methanol output is predicted to remain at a high level, and the import volume is anticipated to resume growth in Q3. Cost support may continue, but the methanol demand from the major downstream industry may fall short of expectations, considering that international crude oil prices may come under pressure. Thus, China’s methanol market prices may drop again after rebounding. In addition, the influence of the macro-environment has also attracted much attention. The domestic methanol market may be still faced with multiple challenges in H2, 2024.
With the methanol industry growth further decelerating, market players are closely eying the development trend of methanol demand. In 2025, what changes the international methanol consumption will experience? Whether there are new demand growth points? Against the background of “Dual Carbon” targets, how the green methanol industry will develop? Face various challenges, what measures methanol producers will take to enhance their competitive edges? What are the future adjustments in the regional industrial structure?
Based on comprehensive and abundant historical data as well as an in-depth analysis of the whole industrial chain, SCI methanol annual report provides an elaborate review and summary of the methanol market in the past five years. What’s more important, it maps out how China’s methanol market will evolve in the next five years to strongly assist customers in judging the market and grasping opportunities.
Report Value
1. Global methanol supply pattern prospect based on proposed units monitoring
2. New trends of international methanol trade flow, revealing global methanol supply-demand changes and market trends in the next three years
3. In-depth analysis of regional methanol output and production layout in the recent five years
4. New perspectives on China methanol trade flow, analyzing the domestic methanol market production and sales variations
5. Green methanol development status and potential evaluation in the next five years
Contents
Part 1 Methanol Market Overview
Part 2 2020-2024 Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
2.1 2020-2024 Supply-Demand Balance Trend Analysis
2.2 2024 Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Feature and Relation with Price
Part 3 Methanol Supply Pattern and Variation Trend Analysis
3.1 2024 Global Methanol Capacity Analysis
3.1.1 Global Methanol Capacity Layout
3.1.2 2024 Global Methanol Trade Flow Analysis
3.2 2020-2024 China Methanol Capacity Variation Analysis
3.2.1 China Methanol Capacity Development Trend Analysis
3.2.1.1 Methanol Capacity Trend and Concentration Degree Analysis
3.2.1.2 Methanol Capacity Structure by Production Technology
3.2.2 China Methanol Capacity Layout Comparative Analysis
3.2.2.1 China Methanol Capacity Layout and Variation Analysis
3.2.2.2 Northwest China Methanol Capacity Analysis
3.2.3 2024 China Methanol Trade Flow Analysis
3.2.3.1 China Major Methanol Sales Area, Demand Volume and Goods Source
3.2.3.2 China Major Methanol Producing Area, Output and Sales Direction
3.2.3.3 China Methanol Trade Flow Feature and Influence
3.2.4 2025-2029 China Newly Added Methanol Capacity Analysis
3.2.4.1 2025-2029 China Methanol Capacity Forecast
3.2.4.2 2025-2029 China Newly Added Methanol Capacity List
3.3 2020-2024 China Methanol Output Variation Analysis
3.3.1 2020-2024 China Methanol Output Analysis
3.3.1.1 China Yearly Methanol Output and Capacity Utilization Rate Variation Trend Analysis
3.3.1.2 China Yearly Regional Methanol Output Variation Analysis
3.3.2 2024 China Monthly Methanol Output Variation and Reason Analysis
3.4 2020-2024 China Methanol Import Market Analysis
3.4.1 2020-2024 China Methanol Import Data Analysis
3.4.1.1 China Methanol Import Volume Trend
3.4.1.2 China Methanol Import Structure by Trade Partner
3.4.1.3 China Methanol Import Structure by Customs and Trade Mode
3.4.1.4 China Methanol Import Structure by Arrival Area
3.4.2 2024 China Methanol Import Volume Variation Analysis
3.4.2.1 Monthly Import Volume and Feature Analysis
3.4.2.2 2024 Import Influence on China’s Total Supply
3.5 2024 Methanol Inventory Variation Analysis
3.5.1 Methanol Total Inventory Variation and Trend Analysis
3.5.1.1 Methanol Inventory at Producers
3.5.1.2 Methanol Inventory at Ports
3.5.2 Inventory Variation and Price Relation Feature Analysis
3.5.2.1 Relation Between Inventory Variation and Supply-Demand
3.5.2.2 Relation Between Inventory Variation and Price
3.6 Methanol Storage and Logistics Analysis
3.6.1 Methanol Storage and Logistics Condition and Policy
3.6.2 Storage and Logistics Cost
3.6.3 Storage and Logistics Changes and Influence on Price
3.7 2025-2029 China Methanol Supply Forecast
3.7.1 2025-2029 Total Supply Forecast
3.7.2 2025 Monthly Supply Forecast and Influence on Price
Part 4 Methanol Demand Pattern and Variation Trend Analysis
4.1 2020-2024 International Methanol Consumption Volume Variation Trend Analysis
4.1.1 2020-2024 Global Major Methanol Consumption Countries and Consumption Variation
4.1.2 2024 Methanol Consumption Variation New Feature and Influence
4.2 2020-2024 China Methanol Consumption Volume Variation Trend Analysis
4.2.1 China Yearly Methanol Consumption Volume and Variation Trend Analysis
4.2.1.1 2020-2024 China Yearly Methanol Consumption Volume Variation
4.2.1.2 2024 China Monthly Methanol Consumption Volume Variation
4.2.2 China Major Methanol Downstream Industry Demand Variation and Feature Analysis
4.2.3 China Methanol Downstream Industry Distribution and Regional Consumption Structure
4.2.4 China Methanol Downstream Industry Customer Size and Demand Variation
4.2.5 China Methanol Downstream Industry Customer Size in Key Areas
4.3 2020-2024 China Methanol Export Market Analysis
4.3.1 2020-2024 China Methanol Export Data Analysis
4.3.1.1 China Methanol Export Volume Trend
4.3.1.2 China Methanol Export Structure by Trade Partner
4.3.1.3 China Methanol Export Structure by Customs and Trade Mode
4.3.2 2024 China Methanol Export Volume Variation Analysis
4.3.2.1 Monthly Export Volume and Feature Analysis
4.3.2.2 2024 Export Influence on China’s Total Demand
4.4 2025-2029 China Methanol Downstream Demand Growth Forecast
4.4.1 CTO/MTO Industry Market Scale and Demand Forecast
4.4.2 Traditional Downstream Industries Market Scale and Demand Forecast
4.5 2025-2029 Methanol Consumption Volume Forecast
4.5.1 China Methanol Consumption Variation Trend
4.5.2 Methanol Export Volume Variation Trend
4.6 Methanol Consumption Peak and Off Seasons Analysis
Part 5 Methanol Price Trend Analysis
5.1 International Methanol Price Trend Analysis
5.1.1 Methanol Price Trend and Feature in Major Regions
5.1.2 China and Overseas Methanol Price Spread Feature and Influence
5.1.3 Methanol Supply and Demand Variation in Global Important Regions
5.2 China Methanol Price Trend Analysis
5.2.1 Price Variation Feature Analysis
5.2.1.1 General Price Trend Feature
5.2.1.2 Price Feature in Major Regions
5.2.2 2024 Price Seasonality Feature Analysis
5.3 Futures Price Trend and Influence on Spot Market
5.4 Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.4.1 Methanol and Major Feedstock Price Correlation
5.4.2 Methanol and Major Downstream Price Correlation
5.4.3 Methanol and Related Product Price Correlation
5.5 Methanol Production Cost and Profit Analysis
5.5.1 Methanol Cost Structure and Feature Analysis
5.5.1.1 Methanol Cost Structure and Variation
5.5.1.2 Methanol Cost Comparative Analysis by Production Technology
5.5.2 Methanol Profit Variation and Influence Analysis
5.5.2.1 Methanol Profit Trend and Feature
5.5.2.2 Profit Variation Influence on Methanol Production
Part 6 Industry Competition Pattern and Operator Behavior Variation Analysis
6.1 Methanol Industry Competition Pattern Variation and Trend
6.2 Value Chain Analysis and Forecast
6.3 SCI Monitored Methanol Enterprise Operation Trend
6.4 Key Downstream Purchasing Factors
6.5 Methanol Operation Risks and Barriers
Part 7 Methanol Industry Development Outlook
7.1 2025-2027 Methanol Price Trend Forecast
7.2 Methanol Prive Driver Development Forecast
7.2.1 Macroenvironment Influence on Methanol Market
7.2.2 Industrial Policy Influence on Methanol Market
7.2.3 2025-2029 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
7.2.3.1 2025-2029 China Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Trend and Feature Forecast
7.2.3.2 2025 Monthly Methanol Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
7.2.4 2025-2029 Methanol Market Trade Flow Forecast and Influence Analysis
7.2.4.1 2025-2029 Global Methanol Trade Flow Forecast and Influence Analysis
7.2.4.2 2025-2029 China Methanol Trade Flow Forecast and Influence Analysis
7.2.5 Related Product Price Co-Movement Influence Forecast
7.3 2025 Major Price Driver Influence Extent Analysis
Appendixes:
1. Methanol Industry Hotspots
2. Methanol Industry Annual Events
3. 2024 Macro and Industry Policy Summary
4. Methodology and Related Definition
5. Methanol Trader List
6. Tables, Charts and Enterprise Names
Legal Statement