Highlights
In 2024, China’s base oil capacity expansion slowed down. Impeded by mediocre domestic demand, the operating rate of base oil industry was at a low level. Meanwhile, affected by the declines in base oil imports and the changes in base oil import policies, the base oil supply in 2024 is estimated to shrink from 2023. In terms of downstream demand, the high-end lubricating grease is a major growth point, so the development of base oil industry will concentrate in high-end group III and group III + sectors. The focus of demand will gradually transfer from quantity to quality. In 2024, both the base oil supply and demand are estimated to dip, and the base oil market price fluctuation range is estimated to be smaller. Meanwhile, the crude oil prices keep hovering at high levels, so the cost is one of the major factors leading to meager margins of the base oil industry. In H1, 2024, China’s base oil market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the average price of 150N base oil fell slightly by 4.71% Y-O-Y to RMB 8,651.2/mt. Meanwhile, the monthly average prices of base oil in H1, 2024 were at relatively high levels. It is predicted that in H2, 2024, base oil prices will consolidate at relatively high levels, mainly backed the anticipated high crude oil prices. As per seasonality, the base oil prices are likely to hit the peak in September or October and fall to the bottom in November or December.
Report value
1. The report provides in-depth interpretation of the evolution and future development of China’s base oil supply and demand pattern as well as the interpretation of the current situation and outlook of the industry's operating rate, and supply and demand analysis of group III and group III + base oil is newly added.
2. By analyzing the base oil regional supply-demand balance and trade flow, the report can help users deeply understand the base oil supply-demand differences and arbitrages between difference regions.
3. The report conducts an in-depth analysis on the changes in the downstream consumption pattern, especially the current development status and future development trends of the lubricating oil industry, and then focuses on predicting the changes in the downstream consumption pattern of base oil and consumption growth points.
4. The report analyzes the factors driving price changes from multiple angles, deeply interprets the current profit inversion status of the base oil industry chain, the profound impact on the future supply and demand of the base oil industry, and objectively evaluates the transmission of the base oil value chain.
Contents
Part 1 Base Oil Market Overview
Part 2 2020-2024 Base Oil Market Supply-Demand Balance Analysis
2.1 2020-2024 Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Trend Analysis
2.2 2024 Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Feature and Price Relation Analysis
Part 3 Base Oil Supply Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
3.1 Global Base Oil Capacity Analysis
3.1.1 Global Base Oil Capacity Layout Overview
3.1.2 2024 Global Base Oil Trade Flow Analysis
3.2 2020-2024 China Base Oil Capacity Analysis
3.2.1 China Base Oil Capacity Development Analysis
3.2.1.1 Base Oil Capacity Development Trend Analysis
3.2.1.2 Base Oil Capacity Concentration Ratio Analysis
3.2.1.3 Base Oil Existing Capacity Technology Structure Feature Analysis
3.2.1.4 Base Oil Existing Capacity and Technology
3.2.2 China Base Oil Capacity Regional Layout Analysis
3.2.2.1 Base Oil Regional Capacity Analysis
3.2.2.2 Base Oil Coastal Capacity Analysis
3.2.3 2024 China Base Oil Trade Flow Analysis
3.2.3.1 China Base Oil Major Consumption Region and Volume Analysis
3.2.3.2 China Base Oil Major Production Region and Output Analysis
3.2.3.3 China Base Oil Trade Flow Feature and Influence Analysis
3.2.4 2025-2029 China Base Oil Newly Added Capacity
3.2.4.1 2024-2028 China Base Oil Capacity Forecast
3.2.4.2 2024 China Base Oil Newly Added Capacity
3.3 2020-2024 China Base Oil Output Trend Analysis
3.3.1 2020-2024 China Base Oil Output
3.3.1.1 China Base Oil Annual Output and Capacity Utilization Analysis
3.3.1.2 China Base Oil Annual Output by Region Analysis
3.3.2 2024 China Base Oil Production Feature and Reason Analysis
3.3.2.1 2024 China Base Oil Monthly Output Trend and Influence Analysis
3.3.2.2 2024 China Base Oil High-Frequency Production Data Feature Analysis
3.4 2020-2024 China Base Oil Import Analysis
3.4.1 2020-2024 China Base Oil Import Data Analysis
3.4.1.1 China Base Oil Import Volume Trend Analysis
3.4.1.2 China Base Oil Import by Trade Partner Analysis
3.4.1.3 China Base Oil Import by Trade Mode Analysis
3.4.2 2024 China Base Oil Import Change Analysis
3.4.2.1 China Monthly Base Oil Import Volume and Feature Analysis
3.4.2.2 2024 Base Oil Import Influence on China Total Supply Analysis
3.5 2024 Base Oil Inventory Change Analysis
3.5.1 Base Oil Inventory Change Trend and Feature Analysis
3.5.2 Relation Between Inventory and Price Analysis
3.6 Base Oil Storage and Logistics Status Analysis
3.6.1 Base Oil Storage and Logistics Status and Policy Analysis
3.6.2 Storage and Logistics Cost Analysis
3.6.3 Storage and Logistics Change and Its Influence on Price Analysis
3.7 2025-2029 China Base Oil Supply Forecast
3.7.1 2025-2029 China Base Oil Total Supply Forecast
3.7.2 2025 China Monthly Base Oil Supply and Its Influence on Price Forecast
Part 4 Base Oil Demand Pattern and Change Trend Analysis
4.1 2020-2024 China Base Oil Consumption Volume Trend Analysis
4.1.1 China Base Oil Annual Consumption Trend Analysis
4.1.1.1 2020-2024 Base Oil Consumption Trend and Analysis
4.1.1.2 2024 Base Oil Monthly Consumption Change and Analysis
4.1.2 China Base Oil Consumption from Major Downstream Industry Trend and Feature Analysis
4.1.3 China Base Oil Downstream Industry Layout and Regional Consumption Structure Analysis
4.1.4 China Base Oil Downstream Customer Scale and Demand Change Analysis
4.1.5 China Base Oil Major Downstream Region Customer Scale Analysis
4.2 2020-2024 China Base Oil Export Analysis
4.2.1 2020-2024 China Base Oil Export Data Analysis
4.2.1.1 China Base Oil Export Trend Analysis
4.2.1.2 2024 China Base Oil Export by Destination
4.2.1.3 2024 China Base Oil Export by Trade Mode
4.2.2 2024 China Base Oil Export Analysis
4.2.2.1 2024 China Base Oil Monthly Export Volume and Feature Analysis
4.2.2.2 2024 Base Oil Export Influence on China Total Base Oil Demand Analysis
4.3 2025-2029 China Base Oil Downstream Industry Demand Growth Forecast
4.3.1 Lubricating Oil Market Scale Analysis and Demand Forecast
4.3.2 Lubricating Grease Market Scale Analysis and Demand Forecast
4.4 2025-2029 China Base Oil Consumption Volume Forecast
4.4.1 China Base Oil Consumption Volume Trend Analysis
4.4.2 China Base Oil Export Volume Trend Analysis
4.5 Base Oil Demand Slack and Peak Seasons Analysis
4.5.1 Base Oil Demand Slack and Peak Seasonality Feature Analysis
4.5.2 Base Oil Demand Slack and Peak Seasons Analysis from Perspective of Price
Part 5 Base Oil Price Trend Analysis
5.1 China Base Oil Market Price Analysis
5.1.1 Price Change Feature Trend Analysis
5.1.1.1 Overall Price Trend Feature Analysis
5.1.1.2 Major Region Price Feature and Arbitrage Analysis
5.1.2 2024 Price Seasonality Feature Analysis
5.2 Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.2.1 Base Oil and Major Feedstock Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.2.2 Base Oil and Related Product Price Co-Movement Analysis
5.3 Base Oil Cost and Profit Analysis
5.3.1 Base Oil Cost Structure and Feature Analysis
5.3.1.1 base Oil Cost Structure and Change Analysis
5.3.1.2 Different Base Oil Production Process Cost Comparison
5.3.2 Base Oil Profit Change and Influence Analysis
5.3.2.1 Base Oil Profit Trend and Feature Analysis
5.3.2.2 Influence of Profit on Enterprise Production Analysis
Part 6 2024 White Oil Market and Supply-Demand Pattern Analysis
6.1 2024 China White Oil Market Overview
6.2 2020-2024 China White Oil Capacity Analysis
6.3 2020-2024 China White Oil Output Analysis
6.3.1 China White Oil Annual Output and Capacity Utilization
6.3.2 China High-End White Oil Import and Development Trend
6.4 China White Oil Demand Analysis
6.4.1 2020-2024 China White Oil Demand Analysis
6.4.2 2024 China White Oil Downstream Industry Analysis
6.5 2025-2027 China White Oil Price Forecast and Price Driver Analysis
Part 7 Industrial Competition Pattern and Operational Behavior Change Analysis
7.1 Base Oil Industrial Competition Pattern Change and Trend Analysis
7.2 Value Change Analysis and Forecast
7.3 SCI-Monitored Enterprise Operation Trend Analysis
7.4 Downstream User Pruchase Key Influencing Factor Analysis
7.5 Operational Risk and Barrier Analysis
Part 8 Base Oil Industry Outlook
8.1 2025-2027 Base Oil Price Trend Forecast
8.2 Base Oil Market Driver Future Development Forecast
8.2.1 Influence of Macro Environment on Base Oil Market Forecast
8.2.2 Influence of Industrial Policy on Base Oil Market Forecast
8.2.3 2025-2029 China Base Oil Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
8.2.3.1 2025-2029 China Base Oil Supply-Demand Trend and Feature Forecast
8.2.3.2 2025 China Base Oil Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Forecast
8.2.4 Related Product Price Co-Movement Forecast
8.3 2025 Base Oil Major Price Driver Influencing Extent Forecast
Appendix
I. Base Oil Market Hotspots
II. Base Oil Industry Annual Event
III. Macro and Industrial Policy Summary (2024)
IV. Data Methodology and Related Definition
V. Distributor List
VI. Tables & Charts
Legal Statement